JOHANNESBURG: South Africa's noticeable drop in new COVID-19 cases in recent days may signal that the country's dramatic omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, medical experts say.
Daily virus case counts are notoriously unreliable, as they can be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays and other fluctuations.
But they are offering one tantalising hint, far from conclusive yet, that omicron infections may recede quickly after a ferocious spike.
South Africa has been at the forefront of the omicron wave and the world is watching for any signs of how it may play out there to try to understand what may be in store.
After hitting a high of nearly 27,000 new cases nationwide on Thursday, the numbers dropped to about 15,424 on Tuesday.
In Gauteng province, South Africa's most populous with 16 million people, including the largest city, Johannesburg, and the capital, Pretoria, the decrease started earlier and has continued.
"The drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the center of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak," Marta Nunes, senior researcher at the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, told The Associated Press.
"It was a short wave and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalizations and deaths," she said.
It is "not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease."
Gauteng province saw its numbers start sharply rising in mid-November.
Scientists doing genetic sequencing quickly identified the new, highly mutated omicron variant that was announced to the world on Nov.25.
Significantly more transmissible, omicron quickly achieved dominance in South Africa.
An estimated 90per cent of COVID-19 cases in Gauteng province since mid-November have been omicron, according to tests.
And the world seems to be quickly following, with omicron already surpassing the delta variant as the dominant coronavirus strain in some countries.
In the U.S., omicron accounted for 73per cent of new infections last week, health officials said, and the variant is responsible for an estimated 90per cent or more of new infections in the New York area, the Southeast, the industrial Midwest and the Pacific Northwest.
Confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.K. have surged by 60 per cent in a week as omicron overtook delta as the dominant variant there.
Worldwide, the variant has been detected in at least 89 countries, according to the World Health Organization.
In South Africa, experts worried that the sheer volume of new infections would overwhelm the country's hospitals, even though omicron appears to cause milder disease, with significantly less hospitalizations, patients needing oxygen and deaths.
But then cases in Gauteng started falling.
After reaching 16,000 new infections on Dec.12, the province's numbers have steadily dropped, to just over 3,300 cases Tuesday.
"It's significant. It's very significant," Dr. Fareed Abdullah said of the decrease.
"The rapid rise of new cases has been followed by a rapid fall and it appears we're seeing the beginning of the decline of this wave," said Abdullah, working in the COVID-19 ward at Pretoria's Steve Biko Academic Hospital.
In another sign that South Africa's omicron surge may be receding, a study of health care professionals who tested positive for COVID-19 at Chris Hani Baragwanath hospital in Soweto shows a rapid increase and then a quick decline in cases.
"Two weeks ago we were seeing more than 20 new cases per day and now it is about five or six cases per day," Nunes said.
But, she said, it is still very early and there are several factors that must be closely watched.
South Africa's positivity rate has remained high at 29per cent, up from just 2per cent in early November, indicating the virus is still circulating among the population at relatively high levels, she said.
And the country's holiday season is now underway, when many businesses close down for a month and people travel to visit family, often in rural areas.
This could accelerate omicron's spread across South Africa and to neighbouring countries, experts said.
"In terms of the massive everyday doubling that we were seeing just over a week ago with huge numbers, that seems to have settled," said Professor Veronica Uekermann, head of the COVID-19 response team at Steve Biko Academic Hospital.
"But it is way too early to suggest that we have passed the peak. There are too many external factors, including the movement during the holiday season and the general behavior during this period," she said, noting that infections spiked last year after the holiday break.
It's summertime in South Africa and many gatherings are outdoors, which may make a difference between the omicron-driven wave here and the surges in Europe and North America, where people tend to gather indoors.
Another unknown factor is how much omicron has spread among South Africans without causing disease.
Some health officials in New York have suggested that because South Africa appears to have experienced a quick, mild wave of omicron, the variant may behave similarly there and elsewhere in the U.S.
But Nunes cautions against jumping to those conclusions.
"Each setting, each country is different. The populations are different. The demographics of the population, the immunity is different in different countries," she said.
South Africa's population, with an average age of 27, is more youthful than many Western countries, for instance.
Most of the patients currently being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals are unvaccinated, Uekermann emphasized.
About 40per cent of adult South Africans have been inoculated with two doses.
"All my patients in ICU are unvaccinated," Uekermann said.
"So our vaccinated people are doing better in this wave, for sure. We have got some patients who are very ill with severe COVID, and these are unvaccinated patients."
Authorities in Nigeria have destroyed about one million expired doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine even as the West African country's vaccination rate has almost doubled in the last one week amid a spike in confirmed infections.
The expired doses, numbering 1,066,214, were destroyed on Wednesday in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, a week after the nation said it will no longer accept donated COVID-19 vaccines with short shelf lives.
Faisal Shuaib, head of Nigeria's National Primary Health Care Development Agency, said Nigeria was put in a difficult situation by developed countries who had "procured these vaccines and hoarded them in their stories (and) at the point they were about to expire, they offered them for donation."
Vaccination is also rapidly picking up in the most populous country in Africa, which has set an ambitious goal of fully vaccinating 55 million of its 206 million citizens before February 2022, although only 2% have received their two doses.
The country is seeing a spike in confirmed infections, a 500% increase in cases in the past two weeks.
COVID-19 vaccination passes became obligatory for Tunisians on Wednesday.
They will now be asked for proof they have received both vaccine doses to enter public spaces and to continue working at state institutions, universities and certain private businesses.
But human rights groups called for a delay to the process, pointing out that people were struggling to get vaccinations and obtain passes, and the move is "unnecessarily severe".
Less than half of Tunisians are fully vaccinated.
The measure was passed by decree by President Kais Saied in October in an effort to drive the nation's vaccination campaign, one of his first decrees since suspending parliament and giving himself sweeping executive and legislative powers.
The pass will be required for an initial period of six months, and extends to all Tunisians aged 18 and above, as well as foreign residents in the country.
To date, around 47% of the population has been fully vaccinated, suggesting that more than half of the population is not entitled to the pass.
The pass will be required at the entrance of certain private businesses, public transport, institutions and spaces such as cafes and restaurants, as well as areas reserved for leisure, culture, sports and worship.
The decree says that state officials who do not present their pass will be suspended from working until they can provide a vaccination certificate.
This also extends to employees in the private sector.
The decree stipulates that such employees will not be paid during the period of suspension.
People without a pass could also be turned away from banks, stores and supermarkets.
Tunis Governor Chedly Bouallègue said that local commissions would be formed to monitor compliance with health measures and that in the event of an infringement, business owners could face temporary closures or fines.
In a statement, rights group Amnesty International called on the Tunisian authorities to suspend the application of the obligatory vaccine pass which "violates workers' rights and the freedom of movement".
Amnesty says the measures "unnecessarily threaten the means of subsistence of Tunisians by inflicting excessively severe sanctions on them in the event of non-compliance" and that the measure comes at a time when Tunisia is facing a dire economic crisis.
In the runup to Wednesday, long queues could be seen outside vaccination centres.
The Health Ministry's digital platform also experienced technical failures, meaning many people were unable to download and print their pass.
According to the the director-general of the Computer Centre of the Ministry of Health, Lotfi Allani, 13,000 requests were recorded per second on Monday.
Allani also said that fake passes were being sold for 30 dinar ($10.40).
I Watch, the Tunisian branch of the international organisation "Transparency International" meanwhile reported cases of fraud and a hacking of the electronic platform, which resulted in the allocation of passes to those who were not eligible.
The association called for a delay to the decree and an investigation into this matter.
Tunisia has lost more than 25,000 people to COVID-19 since the pandemic began, and with a surge in cases in Europe driven by the omicron variant, authorities are anxious to increase vaccination rates and to mitigate the impact of a new wave.
Tunisia's first case of omicron was detected at the beginning of December.