ROME: A small party in Italy's coalition government is expected to withdraw Wednesday, after simmering tensions with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte boiled over in a row over EU recovery funds.
The move by former premier Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (IV) party could mark the end of the coalition established in September 2019 around the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), among others.
But as always in Italian politics, the outcome is far from certain -- particularly now, as the country struggles with an ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has killed almost 80,000 people.
Here are five things you need to know:
- Chronic instability -
The current crisis is focused on the response to the pandemic, but it is yet another example of the chronic instability of Italian governments, which are often minority or built out of shaky partnerships.
Since the Italian republic was founded in 1946, Italy has had 29 prime ministers and 66 different governments -- and Conte himself has led two since he took office in 2018.
The first comprised the M5S and Matteo Salvini's far-right League party. But when the latter pulled out in August 2019, Conte cobbled together another government with M5S, the PD and Renzi's IV.
- EU funds -
Renzi has been criticising Conte for weeks over a range of issues but his attacks homed in on the government's 222.9-billion-euro post-virus recovery plan, paid for in the large part by grants and loans from a 750-billion-euro European Union fund.
He accuses the prime minister of allying with the anti-establishment M5S and "squandering public money" on vote-winning tax breaks and hand-outs instead of using the windfall to invest in long-term structural reform.
He also wants Italy to use the eurozone's rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which could bring in another 37 billion euros, ring-fenced for health spending.
The move is fiercely resisted by the M5S, who fear that seeking ESM help would force Italy to comply with strict austerity rules. EU officials have denied this.
- Conte-Renzi showdown -
The current political turmoil comes down to a contest between two quite different men.
On one side of the table is Conte, a 56-year-old law professor who has never held elected office and was once dubbed "Mr Nobody", but has approval ratings well above his rivals.
On the other is 46-year-old senator Renzi, once the bright hope of the PD and prime minister from 2014 to 2016, who started his own Italia Viva party in 2019 but is now polling at just three percent.
- Power games -
Renzi insists he is motivated by a desire to see Italy prosper but critics see it as sniping from the sidelines in an attempt to win more power in Conte's government.
One analyst described his overtures as a "game of poker" -- but it has high stakes, with several politicians condemning him for politicking in the middle of a coronavirus pandemic that has claimed almost 80,000 lives in Italy.
- What next? -
Conte could resign, there could be a reshuffle or even snap elections -- all the options remained on the table Wednesday, although it is in the interests of all the ruling parties to find a deal.
Opinion polls suggest that early elections could hand power to a coalition of right-wing parties.
The leader of Italia Viva's senators, Davide Faraone, indicated Wednesday that the party had no intention of toppling the government, but called for a "new executive" and legislative programme.