As its Ukraine invasion largely stalls on all fronts, Russia now confronts debt fears

In its latest Defence Intelligence Update posted on social media, the MoD said that while the Russian invasion had largely stalled, the Ukrainian resistance remained well-coordinated.
Ukrainian servicemen carry containers backdropped by a blaze at a warehouse after a bombing on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. (Photo | AP)
Ukrainian servicemen carry containers backdropped by a blaze at a warehouse after a bombing on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. (Photo | AP)

LONDON: Russian forces have made minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days and they continue to suffer heavy losses, the UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) said on Thursday.

In its latest Defence Intelligence Update posted on social media, the MoD said that while the Russian invasion had largely stalled, the Ukrainian resistance remained well-coordinated.

"The Russian invasion of Ukraine has largely stalled on all fronts," the MoD intelligence update reads.

"Russian forces have made minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days and they continue to suffer heavy losses. Ukrainian resistance remains staunch and well-coordinated. The vast majority of Ukrainian territory, including all major cities, remains in Ukrainian hands," it adds.

It comes a day after an "extraordinary meeting" of Defence Ministers was called in Brussels by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Defence ministers from across the military alliance said they addressed both the immediate crisis in Europe and the longer-term adaptation of NATO's defence activities.

"The UK and our Allies continue to support Ukraine against Russia's invasion," said UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

While in Brussels, the MoD said Wallace also held bilateral and small-group meetings with the US, France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Slovakia, Sweden and the Czech Republic.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in the Middle East for talks with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in an effort to move away from the West's reliance on Russian oil and gas exports for its energy needs.

"The Prime Minister and Crown Prince [of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman] agreed to collaborate to maintain stability in the energy market and continue the transition to renewable and clean technology," Downing Street said in a readout of the meeting in Riyadh on Wednesday.

Johnson is in the region on a declared mission to build a global coalition against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian oil exports that bring him a large majority of international funds.

"The Prime Minister [Boris Johnson] would want every country to move away from using Russian oil and gas. It is the funding that the Putin regime receives largely through oil and gas that directly goes towards funding the Russian war machine. Everyone needs to be conscious of that," said the UK PM's spokesperson.

"We understand the position for individual countries is different, each country is in a different position and we respect that. But certainly, the Prime Minister wants to broaden the coalition of countries even further, so that everyone is united not just in condemnation but in action [against Putin]," the spokesperson noted, with reference to India's stance on Russian exports.

The State Department confirmed on Thursday that an American citizen was killed in a Russian attack on the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv.

The department did not immediately confirm the identity of the American, who was at least the second US citizen to be killed in the conflict, after the killing of journalist and filmmaker Brent Renaud last week.

Chernihiv police said on Facebook there was a heavy artillery attack on the city and a US citizen was among the civilians killed.

In Chernihiv, a city north of Kyiv, the capital, at least 53 people had been brought to morgues over the past 24 hours, killed during heavy Russian air attacks and ground fire, the local governor, Viacheslav Chaus, told Ukrainian TV on Thursday.

Kosovo's president on Thursday asked US President Joe Biden to help Kosovo become a NATO member at a time that Russia is making efforts to destabilize the Balkans.

President Vjosa Osmani sent a letter to Biden saying that "Kosovo's membership in NATO has become an imperative."

Kosovo, the most pro-American and pro-NATO country in the world," is excluded from NATO enlargement processes, she said in a letter made available to The Associated Press.

Osmani urged Biden to use the US "leadership and influence to actively support and advance the complex process of NATO membership for Kosovo."

While the world's eyes are focused on the devastating war in Ukraine, Osmani said that "we must not lose sight of the fragile situation we face in the Balkans."

"We are exposed to persistent efforts by Russia to undermine Kosovo and destabilise the entire Western Balkans," she wrote.

Russia's Finance Ministry said it transferred a USD 117 million bond interest payment in an attempt to avoid a default on government debt but left it open if the money actually reached foreign investors by the deadline.

A ministry statement carried on Russian state media Thursday said the money had been transferred to an account at Citibank in London and that the ministry would make a statement later on the results of the transfer.

Citibank had no comment.

The payment, which was due Wednesday, would be the first on foreign currency debt since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

Russia is facing increased financial isolation after Western sanctions have frozen much of the government's hard currency reserves held outside the country and barred transactions with some Russian banks.

The head of the International Monetary Fund has said a state default is no longer "an improbable event," and ratings agencies have slashed Russia's credit rating to below investment grade, or "junk."

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said that if sanctions result in banks being unable to carry out interest payments in dollars, Russia would pay in rubles, which ratings agency Fitch has said would constitute a default.

The US Treasury website indicates that sanctions permit payments on Russian bonds through at least May 25.

Russia would have a 30-day grace period, until April 15 — if holders of the dollar bonds do not get their money.

But Russia could face a default even before then.

A March 2 payment on ruble-denominated bonds held by foreign investors was made into a state depositary fund but not sent on to investors because of Russian central bank restrictions.

Ratings agency Fitch says that would constitute a default after 30 days, or the beginning of April.

On top of that, further bond payments are coming due in the weeks and months ahead.

A complicating factor in Russia's trade and finance transactions is that some companies are leery of any dealings with Moscow, even permitted ones, because of concerns about the complexity of complying with sanctions and unwillingness to be associated with the war.

Russia has about USD 40 billion in foreign currency debt, about half of that owed to foreigners.

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