Ukraine-Russia peace deal soon? Moscow to 'radically' reduce military activity around Kyiv

Fomin’s statement comes Tuesday after another round of talks Russia and Ukraine held in Istanbul and appears to be the first major concession the Russians made since the beginning of their invasion.
A Ukrainian soldier secures the area next to the regional government headquarters of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, following a Russian attack. (Photo | AP)
A Ukrainian soldier secures the area next to the regional government headquarters of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, following a Russian attack. (Photo | AP)

ISTANBUL: Russia's military announced Tuesday it will "fundamentally" scale back operations near Ukraine's capital and a northern city, as talks brought the outlines of a possible deal to end the grinding war into view.

Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said the move was meant to increase trust in the talks after several rounds of negotiations failed to halt what has devolved into a bloody campaign of attrition.

The announcement was met with scepticism from the U.S. and others.

While Russia portrayed it as a goodwill gesture, it comes as the Kremlin's troops have become bogged down in the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance that has thwarted President Vladimir Putin's hopes for a quick military victory.

Late last week, and again on Tuesday, Russia seemed to roll back its war aims, saying its "main goal" now is gaining control of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had not seen anything indicating talks were progressing in a "constructive way," and he suggested Russian indications of a pullback could be an attempt by Moscow to "deceive people and deflect attention."

"There is what Russia says and there is what Russia does, and we're focused on the latter," Blinken said in Morocco.

"And what Russia is doing is the continued brutalisation of Ukraine."

He added, "If they somehow believe that an effort to subjugate only the eastern part of Ukraine or the southern part of Ukraine can succeed, then once again they are profoundly fooling themselves."

Fomin said Moscow has decided to "fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv" to "increase mutual trust and create conditions for further negotiations."

He did not immediately spell out what that would mean in practical terms.

Ukraine's military said it has noted withdrawals of some forces around Kyiv and Chernihiv.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told CNN "we haven't seen anything to corroborate" reports of Russia withdrawing significant forces from around Kyiv.

"But what we have seen over the last couple of days is they have stopped trying to advance on Kyiv."

Rob Lee, a military expert at the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, tweeted: "This sounds like more of an acknowledgment of the situation around Kyiv where Russia's advance has been stalled for weeks and Ukrainian forces have had recent successes. Russia doesn't have the forces to encircle the city."

Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine met Tuesday in Istanbul, their first face-to-face talks in two weeks.

Earlier talks, held in person in Belarus or by video, made no progress toward ending the more than month-long war that has killed thousands and driven over 10 million Ukrainians from their homes, including almost 4 million who have fled the country.

Fomin suggested there had been progress Tuesday, saying "negotiations on preparing an agreement on Ukraine's neutrality and non-nuclear status, as well as on giving Ukraine security guarantees, are turning to practical matters."

Ukraine's team, meanwhile, set out a detailed framework for a peace deal under which the country would remain neutral but its security would be guaranteed by a group of third countries, including the U.S., Britain, France, Turkey, China and Poland, in an arrangement similar to NATO's "an attack on one is an attack on all" principle.

Ukraine said it would also be willing to hold talks over a 15-year period on the future of the Crimean Peninsula, which was seized by Russia in 2014, with both countries agreeing not to use their armed forces to resolve the issue in the meantime.

Russia's views on the proposals were not immediately clear.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the talks had made "meaningful" progress and the two sides had reached "a consensus and common understanding" on some issues.

He said the meeting would be followed by a one between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers at an unspecified time.

A meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents is also "on the agenda," he said.

Moscow has demanded, among other things that Ukraine drop any hope of joining the NATO alliance, which it sees as a threat.

Ahead of the talks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country was prepared to declare its neutrality.

Zelenskyy also said he was open to compromise over the Donbas, the predominantly Russian-speaking region where Moscow-backed rebels have been waging a separatist war for eight years.

But even as the negotiators assembled in Istanbul, Russian forces hit an oil depot in western Ukraine late Monday and blasted a gaping hole Tuesday morning in a nine-story government administration building in the southern port city of Mykolaiv.

At least seven people were killed in that attack, Zelenskyy said.

"It's terrible. They waited for people to go to work" before striking the building, said regional governor Vitaliy Kim.

"I overslept. I'm lucky."

In other developments: The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency arrived in Ukraine to try to ensure the safety of the country's nuclear facilities.

Russian forces have taken control of the decommissioned Chernobyl plant, site in 1986 of the world's worst nuclear accident, and of the active Zaporizhzhia plant, where a building was damaged in fighting.

Russia has destroyed more than 60 religious buildings across the country in just over a month of war, with most of the damage concentrated near Kyiv and in the east, Ukraine's military said.

Bloomberg said it has suspended operations in Russia and Belarus.

Customers in the two countries won't be able to access any Bloomberg financial products, it said.

In the room at the Istanbul talks was Roman Abramovich, a longtime ally of Putin who has been sanctioned by Britain and the European Union.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Chelsea football team owner has been serving as an unofficial mediator approved by both countries.

But mystery about his role has been deepened by news reports that he may have been poisoned during an earlier round of talks.

In fighting that has devolved into a back-and-forth stalemate, Ukrainian forces retook Irpin, a key suburb northwest of the capital, Kyiv, Zelenskyy said late Monday.

But he warned that Russian troops were regrouping to take the area back.

Ukrainian forces also seized back control of Trostyanets, south of Sumy in the northeast, after weeks of Russian occupation that left a devastated landscape.

Arriving in the town Monday shortly afterward, The Associated Press saw the bodies of two Russian soldiers in the woods, and Russian tanks sat burned and twisted.

A red "Z" marked a Russian truck, its windshield fractured, near stacked boxes of ammunition.

Ukrainian forces on top of a tank flashed victory signs.

Dazed residents lined up amid charred buildings, seeking aid.

It was unclear where the Russian troops went and under what circumstances they fled.

Putin's ground forces have been thwarted not just by stronger-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, but by what Western officials say are Russian tactical missteps, poor morale, shortages of food, fuel and cold weather gear, and other problems.

Reinforcing what the military said last week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that "liberating Donbas" is now Moscow's main objective.

While that presents a possible face-saving exit strategy for Putin, it has also raised Ukrainian fears the Kremlin aims to split the country and force it to surrender a swath of its territory.

In other developments: The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog arrived in Ukraine to try to ensure the safety of the country's nuclear facilities.

Russian forces have taken control of the decommissioned Chernobyl plant, site in 1986 of the world's worst nuclear accident, and of the active Zaporizhzhia plant, where a building was damaged in fighting.

Russia has destroyed more than 60 religious buildings across the country in just over a month of war, with most of the damage concentrated near Kyiv and in the east, Ukraine's military said in a post Tuesday.

Bloomberg News said it has suspended its operations in Russia and Belarus.

Customers in both countries won't be able to access any Bloomberg financial products and trading functions for Russian securities were disabled in line with international sanctions, it said.

In the room at the Istanbul talks was Roman Abramovich, a longtime ally of Putin who has been sanctioned by Britain and the EU.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Chelsea Football Club owner has been serving as an unofficial mediator approved by both countries, but mystery about his role has been deepened by reports that he may have been poisoned during an earlier round of talks.

In fighting that has devolved into a back-and-forth stalemate, Ukrainian forces retook Irpin, a key suburb northwest of the capital, Kyiv, Zelenskyy said late Monday.

But he warned that Russian troops were regrouping to take the area back.

He also lashed out at Western countries, which he has repeatedly accused of not going far enough to punish Moscow with sanctions or support Ukraine.

Western hesitancy in providing weapons makes those nations partially responsible for the destruction wrought, he said.

"Fear always makes you an accomplice," he said.

As well as Irpin, Ukrainian forces also seized back control of Trostyanets, south of Sumy in the northeast, after weeks of Russian occupation that has left a landscape devastated by war.

Arriving in the town Monday shortly afterward, The Associated Press saw the bodies of two Russian soldiers lay abandoned in the woods and Russian tanks lay burned and twisted.

A red "Z" marked a Russian truck, its windshield fractured, near stacked boxes of ammunition.

Ukrainian forces piled atop a tank flashed victory signs.

Dazed residents lined up amid charred buildings seeking aid.

It was unclear where the Russian troops went, under what circumstances they fled and whether the town will remain free of them.

Ukraine, meanwhile, said it would try to evacuate civilians from three southern cities on Tuesday.

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said humanitarian corridors would run from heavily bombed Mariupol as well as Enerhodar and Melitopol.

The latter two cities are under Russian control, but Vereshchuk didn't say whether Moscow had agreed to the corridors.

Putin's ground forces have become bogged down because of the stronger-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, combined with what Western officials say are Russian tactical missteps, poor morale, shortages of food, fuel and cold weather gear, and other problems.

In response, Russia appeared to be concentrating more on Donbas, the predominantly Russian-speaking region where Moscow-backed rebels have been waging a separatist war for eight years, the official said.

In a further indication of that shift, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that "liberating Donbas" was Moscow's main military goal.

Shoigu, whose few public appearances this month raised questions about his health and whereabouts, told top military officials that Russia had largely completed the first stage of its operation and was shifting to "the main goal: the liberation of Donbas."

While that presents a possible face-saving exit strategy for Putin, it has also raised Ukrainian fears the Kremlin aims to split the country, forcing it to surrender a swath of its territory.

Still, Zelenskyy's comments that he was open to compromise on the region indicated a possible path for negotiations.

US markets headed higher in premarket trading on Tuesday as another round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine got underway.

On Wall Street, the futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials gained 0.6%, and global shares rose while crude oil prices fell again after sinking 7% on Monday.

Markets remain unsettled as investors try to gauge what's next for inflation and the global economy as the repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine continue to play out.

The first face-to-face talks in two weeks between Russia and Ukraine began Tuesday in Turkey, raising meagre hopes of progress on ending a war that has ground into a bloody campaign of attrition.

The CAC40 in Paris surged 2.9%, Germany's DAX jumped 2.6% and Britain's FTSE 100 gained 1.3%.

After early gains, Russia's MOEX index fell more than 5% in the second day of full trading after it was closed for about a month following the Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine.

Limits have been imposed to curb volatility.

In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.1% to 28,252.42 and the Kospi in Seoul added 0.4% to 2,740.13.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong picked up 0.8% to 21,864.68, while the Shanghai Composite index lost 0.2% to 3,203.94 as the city entered a second day of a lockdown to combat a COVID-19 outbreak.

A two-phase lockdown on Shanghai's 26 million people is testing the limits of China's hardline "zero-COVID" strategy whose effects are being felt beyond the country's borders.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 surged 0.7% to 7,464.30 as the government said it plans to increase spending on national security while reducing costs for households, in part by reducing a tax on gasoline.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was to present the proposed budget Tuesday.

Weaker oil prices have helped push shares higher, said Yeap Jun Rong of IG.

"China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are major oil importers, hence lower oil prices may be deemed as positive for their economies," Yeap said in a commentary.

U.S. crude oil skidded again, falling $3.60 to $102.36 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Monday, it slumped 7% on news of the lockdown in Shanghai, which could dent global demand, Brent crude, the international standard, fell 6.8%.

On Tuesday, Brent slid $3.15 to 106.34 per barrel in London.

Oil prices are up about 40% globally over concerns about tighter supplies as demand remains strong.

Higher oil prices are also raising concerns that already persistently high inflation could be worsened, further threatening global economic growth.

Bond yields edged higher.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.50% from 2.46% late Monday.

Bond yields have been rising as Wall Street prepares for higher interest rates.

The Federal Reserve has already announced a 0.25% hike of its key benchmark interest rate and is prepared to continue raising rates to help temper the impacts of rising inflation.

Investors will get more updates this week on just how much inflation is hurting consumers and businesses.

The Conference Board will release its consumer confidence index for March on Tuesday.

The Commerce Department will release its February report for personal income and spending on Thursday and the Labour Department will release its employment report for March on Friday.

In currency trading, the dollar slipped to 123.57 Japanese yen from 123.77 yen.

The euro rose to $1.1087 from $1.0983.

Russia's defense minister says that "liberating" the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine is the main goal of Moscow's military operation, underlining a possible shift in strategy announced last week by another Russian military official.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whose few public appearances this month raised questions about his health and whereabouts, held a meeting with top military officials on Tuesday and said that "overall, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed."

He said that "the combat potential of the Ukrainian armed forces has been significantly reduced, which makes it possible to focus the main attention and main efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas."

The minister stressed that the Russian military will continue the operation until "the set goals are achieved."

Shoigu also offered an assurance that Russia will not send conscripts recruited in the upcoming April draft to Ukraine.

Earlier this month, the Russian military admitted that a number of conscripts ended up in Ukraine and were even captured there.

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