BAKU: As COP29 reaches its midpoint, the climate finance negotiations remain deadlocked, casting a shadow over the conference's prospects. The talks in Baku are centred on establishing the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), a critical framework that aims to provide financial support to developing nations grappling with the mounting impacts of climate change. However, the failure to agree on a target amount or contributor base threatens to derail progress.
Amidst the slow progress, the two-day G20 summit in Rio starting Monday is the only chance for leaders to energise the process back in Baku. Brazil’s presidency has driven reforms in multilateral finance, but developing nations still face barriers as high capital costs and fossil fuel dependency remain. Major breakthroughs aren’t expected, but clear signals from the world’s largest economies could shoot an assist to worn out negotiators in Baku before the arrival of ministers.
Avinash Persaud, Special Advisor on Climate Change to the President of the Inter-American Development Bank, said: “The planet will not be saved by the savings of the world's poor. Developing countries need over $1.3 trillion of international finance annually to accelerate the energy transformation, invest in resilience and respond to loss and damage. Much of this will come through the public support of the private sector investing in the energy transition. This will only be reached with at least trebling the core amount of climate finance from wealthy nations and the multilateral development banks. In return, that will take leadership from G20 leaders, leaders of the largest shareholders of these banks, the largest emitters, and the largest economies."
Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary, UN Climate Change, said: “Ambitious outcomes in Baku remain vital, because unless all countries can cut emissions and build more resilience into global supply chains, no economy – including the G20 – will survive unchecked global heating, and no household will be spared its severe inflationary impacts.”
Meanwhile, another draft NCQG text was released Friday, which again runs into 25 pages sparking concerns among negotiators that it lacks the clarity and focus required for meaningful ministerial discussions next week. While China has signaled potential flexibility in the negotiations, developed nations have been criticised for their reluctance to commit to ambitious financing goals. Analysts have pointed out that significant work is needed to streamline the draft and build consensus.
Harjeet Singh, Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, voiced his concerns about the lack of progress. "It is deeply disturbing to witness the climate finance negotiations come to a standstill. Developed nations continue to display a disturbing level of apathy, viewing vital climate finance as mere investments rather than the lifeline that developing countries urgently need," he said.
The stakes are high. A recent report by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance estimated that developing nations will require $1.3 trillion annually by 2030 to address climate adaptation, resilience, and energy transition needs. Without this financial lifeline, many nations face an uphill battle in implementing critical climate actions.
Singh also highlighted the inequity in current expectations. "Developing nations are being coerced into transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables without sufficient financial or technological support, while developed countries continue expanding their own fossil fuel extraction. This situation is not merely unfair but starkly unjust," he added.
With ministers set to arrive soon, the need for political will and decisive action has never been more urgent. Failure to break the impasse risks undermining the credibility of COP29 and leaving vulnerable nations to bear the brunt of climate impacts alone.
