BRASILIA: Brazil's political right is united in its defense of firebrand ex-president JairBolsonaro. If he is convicted in the coming days for an alleged coup attempt, however, the unity of his once-powerful movement is far from certain, with elections due next year.
The former army captain is accused of conspiring to stay in power after his electoral defeat to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in 2022.
A conviction in court -- with a verdict due any time from Tuesday -- could send the 70-year-old to prison, perhaps for the rest of his life.
Throughout his legal woes, right-wing allies have rallied to Bolsonaro's cause, including calling for protests on September 7.
But behind the scenes, many are waiting patiently for the trial's end to decide who will inherit the former president's massive electoral base ahead of next year's election.
Bolsonaro's most loyal supporters want to avoid the debate altogether.
They are calling for Brazil's Congress to vote to grant him a general amnesty -- a get-out-of-jail-free card.
If Bolsonaro is convicted, "pressure for amnesty will increase," says a Bolsonaro ally in parliament, asking not to be named.
Even if he is granted amnesty, however, Bolsonaro will still face another problem: he is ineligible to hold public office until 2030, after being found guilty of undermining democracy by criticizing the electronic voting system without evidence.
"Bolsonaro is already condemned," it is "a shameful political persecution," claimed his friend, influential evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia, who himself is under investigation for obstruction.
Amnesty, Malafaia told AFP, "ends up overturning all this."
Friction on the right
Two different options are on the table.
Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro champions an "unrestricted" pardon, designed to exonerate his father.
There is also a "lite" option that would only benefit Bolsonaro's allies convicted for storming public buildings in January 2023.
That may be more palatable to center-right lawmakers, but it would ignite the question of who would replace Bolsonaro as leader of the right.
"Bolsonarists won't give up on Bolsonaro being a candidate, even if convicted," said the legislative source, who requested anonymity as they are not authorized to disclose internal political discussions.
That determination by Bolsonaro's allies is already generating friction with more moderate right-wing figures.
One of the ex-president's sons, councilman Carlos Bolsonaro, recently lashed out at "rats" who "only want to inherit his legacy."
Eduardo Bolsonaro also threw barbs at Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, who has gained prominence as a potential rival against Lula in the 2026 elections.
Another factor is fuelling the unease within Brazil's right: the unpopular 50 percent tariffs imposed in August by US President Donald Trump in retaliation for the trial of Bolsonaro, an ally of the brash, populist US leader.
Eduardo Bolsonaro spearheaded the campaign to have Washington impose the tariffs and to sanction a top judge involved in the case.
The result has been to prop up Lula in the polls and to allow the leftist president to present himself as a defender of Brazilian "sovereignty."
Malafaia went as far as calling Eduardo an "idiot," although he has since retracted the statement.
There are tensions within the Bolsonaro family, too. When Jair Bolsonaro called Eduardo "immature" for attacking Tarcisio, Eduardo exploded: "Go to hell, you ingrate," according to a message gathered by police in a report.
With no one in Brazil ruling out new US sanctions after the trial, the crisis could run to next year's election.
As has often been the case with Brazilian politics recently, it is likely to be a bare-knuckle affair.
Bolsonaro's allies may try to repeat events from the 2018 election, when Lula's campaign was derailed by a corruption conviction that was later annulled.
"In Brazil, anything can happen. A guy who was in prison is now the president," said the parliamentary source.
