Stricter visa rules and policy uncertainty are expected to result in up to 1.1 lakh fewer international student enrolments at US colleges and universities in Fall 2026, according to a report by a non-profit organisation representing international educators.
The NAFSA: Association of International Educators report projected that the decline in international student enrolment could lead to a loss of $3.4 billion in local spending and affect an estimated 39,000 jobs.
According to the report by NAFSA and research firm JB International, the number of international students enrolled in the US was estimated at 11.69 lakh in Fall 2025-26 and is projected to fall to 10.57 lakh this year.
India is the largest source of international students in the US, with more than 3.63 lakh students enrolling in various courses during the 2024-25 academic year.
International students contributed $41.77 billion to the US economy in Fall 2025-26, according to the report. That figure is projected to fall to $38.37 billion in 2026-27.
"The projections underscore what we've long warned: US policy and regulations affect where international students plan to invest their future -- and their decisions carry significant short- and long-term consequences for US society and economy,” said Fanta Aw, Executive Director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators.
Besides stricter travel policies, the Department of State's priority to issue visas to FIFA World Cup ticket holders over students has also affected international enrolments at US universities.
Historically, the department has prioritised student and scholar visa applications during this peak season, helping ensure timely campus arrivals, the report noted.
Last year, the US government restricted visitors from dozens of countries, including Afghanistan and Yemen, citing security concerns.
Last month, the Department of Homeland Security finalised a rule that will bar international students from staying in the US for longer than four years without an extension.
The change could create challenges for students enrolled in lengthy doctoral programmes or those hoping to remain in the US for temporary work after completing their studies.
“All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries. Forfeiting the US position as the top destination for global talent hurts students, hospitals, research laboratories, the economies – and carries the real risk that the next big invention will not happen on US soil,” the NAFSA official said.
Declines in graduate-level enrolment are the primary driver of economic losses, particularly among institutions with the largest international student populations, the report said.
(With inputs from PTI)
