NEW DELHI: India’s net-zero ambition is fraught with palpable crises – land conflicts and water challenges. It’s a grim reminder to the world that global warming cannot be limited by extending the historical emissions burden to those who had no role in it.
India’s target to achieve net-zero emission by 2070 is mostly dependent on exploitations of solar and onshore wind energy. However, the realisation of the full potential of a country’s renewable energy could trigger large scale land conflicts and food security crises as it requires large swathes of land.
A new study on ‘Unlocking India’s RE and Green Hydrogen Potential: An Assessment of Land, Water, and Climate Nexus’ found that to achieve it, the country will have to face land conflicts and extreme pressure on water and food. Further, climate change impact will exacerbate it.
Conducted by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), a New Delhi-based non-profit, the study estimated that India has an RE potential of over 24,000 giga watt (GW) but requires only 7,000 GW to achieve the net-zero target. The current installed RE capacity is 150 GW.
According to the study, even raising the capacity up to 1,500 GW could face critical challenges, as multiple constraints such as land access, water crisis, climate risks, and population density come into play.
This first-of-its kind study mapped India’s potential landmass and applied real-world constraints in scaling up its RE and green hydrogen potential. It did the assessment using detailed 5x5 km grid cells, which offer a more practical understanding of what can actually be developed and where.
“While our RE potential is vast, the road to net zero is fraught with challenges,” says Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW. “From land conflicts and population density to the unpredictable but undeniable impact of climate change, every step forward will demand resilience and innovation,” Ghosh adds.
Onshore wind potential
India has an onshore wind potential of 1,790 GW for a hub height of 100 m and power load factor (PLF) cut-off of 30%. The study estimates a requirement of 28 acres of land for producing 1 MW of energy.
The land required for wind potential largely consists of agricultural land followed by range land and bare ground, which could impact the country’s food security.
The analysis indicates that around 41% of the wind potential (732 GW) is in areas with high population density of over 400 people per sq km, posing a potential risk of mobilisation against the development of wind power projects. Further, around 19% of the total wind potential is located in high conflict districts, which have experienced more than three face-offs.
However, the absence of conflict doesn’t imply there will be no conflict. The study underlined that conflicts could arise as the scale of RE ramps up. For instance, currently 31% wind power is located in areas where three or more conflicts have already occurred.
Solar potential
Analysis shows that around 5 acres of land is required for producing 1 MW of power from solar fields. The study estimated the country’s net solar potential as 20,270 GW. But a power load factor (PLF) greater than 23 would require approximately 13% of India’s total land area.
The assessment indicates that rangelands account for 91% of the net solar potential and are preferred for setting up solar power projects. The share of bare ground is 9% of India’s solar capacity.
However, rangeland is important for millions of families. Limiting the likelihood of any conflict during the acquisition process is important for their livelihood.
In addition, there is a wind-solar hybrid (WSH) potential, which is calculated based on the availability of co-located solar and wind resources in India. The assessment shows that there is 3,700 GW potential of WSH, assuming a wind PLF cut-off of 30%, in which solar accounts for 84%.
Green hydrogen and water nexus
Water availability is a key prerequisite for the production of green hydrogen. Green hydrogen would be cost effective only if the electrolyser would run in Wind-Solar Hybrid (WSH) areas, which are mostly in water scarce areas.
Approximately 56 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of green hydrogen can be produced in WSH areas without encountering any water availability challenges. These areas, mostly in western and southern India, can be developed as low-cost green hydrogen production centres.
But in some WSH areas like Western Rajasthan, water would have to be transported from other regions to continue production of green hydrogen. Besides, one-fourth of green hydrogen production potential is located in areas with no groundwater availability.
The way forward
Validate RE and green hydrogen potential using better quality data and on-ground assessments
Create graded land banks for RE and green hydrogen projects
Encourage the utilisation of existing landholdings for RE development
Evaluate grid infrastructure where there is promising RE potential
Evaluate offshore potential, especially for green hydrogen export
Evaluate grid resilience and power storage requirements to address seasonality
Evaluate the potential for agro-voltaics, especially in horticultural areas
Prevent desertification that will limit access to RE
Develop water management policies specifically for energy production
Assess the need for developing surface water storage
