CHENNAI: As climate hazards like floods and wildfires intensify and global financial resources tighten, a latest study by the World Resources Institute (WRI) provides evidence that climate adaptation investments generate value. A first-of-its-kind Adaptation Triple Dividend of Resilience (AdapTDR) database analyses 320 projects across 12 countries from 2006 to 2024, with a purse of USD 133 billion, finding that each dollar invested yields 10.4 dollars in benefits over 10 years, with total returns exceeding USD 1.4 trillion and an average economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of 27 per cent.
India, with 39 projects averaging USD 588.28 million each, contributes significantly to this dataset, demonstrating returns in agriculture, water, and infrastructure sectors.
The study’s methodology evaluated projects approved by multilateral development banks (MDBs) and other development finance institutions (DFIs), focusing on agriculture, health, infrastructure, and water. Data collection sourced public project appraisal documents (PADs) from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Green Climate Fund.
The AdapTDR database captures objectives, costs, benefits, net present values (NPVs), and EIRRs, using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and the triple dividend framework, which measures avoided losses, induced economic benefits, and social-environmental benefits. The sample includes 12 countries — Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Colombia, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam — representing 48 pc of the global population.
In India, the Odisha Integrated Irrigation Project for Climate Resilient Agriculture, costing USD 235.54 million, with benefits expected to spread over 26 years operates over 26 years, enhancing agricultural intensification and diversification. Its economic net present value (ENPV) ranges from USD 132 million to USD 241 million, with an EIRR of between 10.8 pc and 14.2 pc. The project reaches 72 pc of beneficiaries through improved water management and climate-smart practices, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as per the World Bank.
The Tamil Nadu Climate Resilient Urban Development Project, a $300 million investment, aims to strengthen urban management, specifically increasing access to and coverage of urban water and sanitation facilities in urban areas across the state. It delivers all three dividends. First, there are avoided losses due to prevented health issues (such as diarrhoea) and improved health conditions. Second, it also leads to greater cash revenue for urban local bodies, due to improved metering and billing, tax restructuring, and more water and sewage connections.
The project integrates climate resilience into urban planning and water and sewage management and is expected to enhance public finance management systems within the ULBs. Third, it improves water supply and sanitation facilities and reduces the cost of water collection for urban populations. The project estimates emissions reductions of 6.8 million tCO2eq during its economic lifetime.
The Meghalaya Community-led Landscapes Management Project, a USD 60 million initiative, records an EIRR of 38.1 pc over 20 years, with an NPV of USD 46.12 million. It increases crop productivity by 10 pc and sequesters 3.5 million tCO2eq, with 30 pc adaptation and 70 pc mitigation co-benefits, as per ADB data. The Andhra Pradesh Health Systems Strengthening Project, costing USD 3.44 billion with a USD 328 million World Bank loan, achieves an EIRR of 26 pc. It prevents 2,89,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by boosting health service capacity, with benefits valued across all three dividends.
“One of our most striking findings is that adaptation projects aren’t just paying off when disasters happen — they generate value every day through more jobs, better health, and stronger local economies,” said Carter Brandon, Senior Fellow, WRI. These projects align with India’s economic diversity, with agriculture projects averaging an EIRR of 27.26 pc and transport, with 39 projects, reaching 27.29 pc, as seen in urban connectivity initiatives.
Globally, China’s Hubei Yichang Rural Green Development Project, achieves an EIRR of 17.8 pc. The project is expected to yield a triple dividend, with substantial induced economic benefits, including reduced water loss due to efficient irrigation systems — amounting to USD 164.50 million in savings—and increased agricultural productivity valued at USD 3.30 billion. The project could also help avoid losses from increased climate risks by reducing flood losses amounting to USD 0.24 million and generate social and environmental benefits by improving rural sanitation and waste management systems and reducing GHGs.
Kenya’s USD 1.34 billion Social and Economic Inclusion Project achieves a 26 pc EIRR, focusing on health and drought resilience, while Brazil’s USD 73.3 million Fortaleza Sustainable Urban Development Project yields a 32 pc EIRR through urban upgrades. “This research has pried open the lid on what resilience is truly worth — and even that first glimpse is staggering,” said Sam Mugume Koojo, co-chair of the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action from Uganda.
Sectoral trends show health projects, like India’s Andhra Pradesh initiative, and disaster risk management, such as Bangladesh’s USD 129 million Weather and Climate Services Regional Project with a 75.1 pc EIRR, leading with returns above 70 pc due to life-saving benefits, as per World Bank data. Nearly half of all projects reduce GHG emissions, with strong examples in energy, forestry, and agriculture, the WRI study reveals. Water projects, averaging 18.25 pc EIRR, lag due to low valuation of avoided losses, a pattern in India’s water supply projects.
“This evidence gives leaders and non-state actors exactly what they need heading into COP30: a clear economic case for scaling adaptation,” said Dan Ioschpe, Climate High-Level Champion for COP30.
“Belém must become a turning point – mainstreaming resilience into national and local priorities and unlocking the full potential of non-state actors' leadership,” he added.