India's banana production faces increasing risks due to rising temperatures and the resurgence of climate-related pests, which could significantly affect a large number of people who rely on them for nutrition.
A study by a UK-based organisation, Christian Aid, found that India, the world's largest producer of bananas, may experience a decline in production by 2050 due to temperature increases caused by climate change. Bananas thrive in temperatures ranging from 15 to 35 degrees Celsius and require ample water to grow effectively.
Bananas are the fourth most important food crop globally, following wheat, rice and maize. In India, bananas occupy approximately 20% of the total cropped area, with Tamil Nadu leading in acreage while Maharashtra tops the production and export lists.
India’s contribution to global banana exports is comparatively less. It stood at 12th position, showing that production is meant for domestic consumption, which complements nutritional intake.
The study, "Going Bananas: How Climate Change Threatens the World’s Favourite Fruit," warns that 60% of the best banana-growing areas are at risk from rising temperatures driven by climate change. It assesses climate change’s near-term and long-term impacts.
The study underlines that climate impacts on bananas will be felt in the near term through extreme weather events such as erratic conditions like stormy rain, extreme floods, and drought conditions, while steadily increasing temperatures and alterations to the monsoon season will affect production in the long term.
The report indicates that India is expected to see declining banana yields due to climate change by 2050. Ever-increasing temperatures due to human activities have been leading to more pest attacks and wider infestation and distribution, potentially impacting production as well as nutrition. In India, changing climate has been exacerbating fungal diseases, such as Panama disease, and pests like banana weevils threatening production.
Indian farmers mostly grow the Cavendish banana variety. However, it is highly susceptible to Panama TR4 disease, a fungal disease also known as Fusarium wilt. The disease leads to the plant's wilting, yellowing, and eventual death.
Further, banana weevils or banana root borers are causing various issues like stunted growth, plant snapping, reduced yield, and premature fruit ripening, consequently impacting farmers' income.
Meanwhile, the lack of diversity in banana varieties, as Indian farmers mostly grow the Cavendish variety, which is commercially more viable, increases the possibility of susceptibility to indirect climate impacts, including diseases. Lack of genetic diversity poses a threat of emerging diseases, as natural selection cannot act to allow the survival and spread of resistant genomes.
The analysis also examined rainfall patterns in the banana-producing regions. It found that in India’s central belt, including the banana-exporting state of Maharashtra, extreme rainfall events have increased threefold since 1950, despite an overall decline in annual rainfall.
Unlike other fruits, bananas are available year-round, are affordable and nutritious. Moreover, many households' livelihoods depend on the fibre of bananas, which is used to make bags, rope and paper. A decline in banana production will impact the income of 43% of India’s working population, who depend on agriculture.
Currently, Latin America and the Caribbean account for 80% of global banana exports. However, a report warns that by 2050, 60% of suitable banana-growing areas may be lost, leading to sharp yield reductions in countries like India, Brazil, Colombia and Costa Rica. In many African nations, bananas serve as staple food, and any yield decline will worsen malnutrition.
The report attributes these challenges to extreme weather, rising temperatures, and increased pests, calling for urgent emissions reductions and enhanced support for farmers.
Experts highlight that increasing farmers' incomes is key to achieving sustainability. Despite the UK leading banana consumption in Europe, low supermarket prices hinder growers from covering rising costs due to climate change, emphasising the need for fair pricing.