Apple is set to claim its highest-ever share of the global smartphone market in 2026, despite a sharp downturn in the sector caused by rising memory costs, according to a report by Counterpoint Research.
The report estimates that Apple will reach a 25% share of the global smartphone market, while rival manufacturers are expected to face double-digit declines in shipments due to surging memory prices. Other companies are raising prices to protect margins. However, Apple's premium positioning allows it to absorb rising supply-chain costs that are forcing competitors to pass on higher prices to budget-conscious consumers.
Supported by its affluent customer base and strong multi-generational demand for the iPhone 17 and upcoming iPhone 18 Pro series, Apple is well-positioned to gain market share even as the broader market contracts.
“This year defines Apple’s unique resilience within the industry. The multi-segment market share gains also mean a compounding impact on the company’s ecosystem strength. Apple is still gaining new users across categories, and it will become increasingly difficult for competitors to make an Apple user switch to their operating system,” said Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint Research.
The report noted that Apple’s iPhone shipments are likely to remain flat in 2026, while most other major OEMs are expected to see double-digit declines. While many manufacturers have had to increase prices to sustain margins, Apple has not raised iPhone prices so far. Premium segments generally enjoy higher margins and are better able to absorb cost pressures. At the same time, affluent consumers tend to be less sensitive to price increases.
Moreover, the iPhone 18 Pro series is expected to outperform the iPhone 17 Pro series, while the iPhone 17 is likely to maintain strong demand in the absence of a standard iPhone 18 model in 2026. As a result, Apple is projected to achieve its highest-ever smartphone market share at around 25%.
Tablet Market
The overall tablet market is expected to decline in 2026 due to inventory corrections and memory shortages. However, Apple is forecast to grow, supported by an ongoing refresh cycle across its iPad portfolio and continued demand from emerging markets.
Following the launch of the M5-powered iPad Pro in late 2025 and the iPad Air refresh earlier this year, Apple is expected to strengthen its lineup further with new base iPad and iPad mini models during the remainder of 2026. This broad refresh cycle should help the company maintain consumer interest across multiple price points and better withstand demand pressures affecting the wider tablet market, supporting further market-share gains.
Laptop Segment
Within the laptop segment, the launch of the MacBook Neo is expected to drive Apple’s growth momentum in 2026. The report forecasts Apple’s Mac shipments to grow 23% year-on-year, while the overall laptop market is expected to decline by 11%.
Compared with other OEMs, Apple is projected to gain the highest percentage-point increase in market share in the laptop segment during 2026. Across both iPads and Macs, Apple’s market share is expected to reach record highs.
Smartwatches
Smartwatches are expected to be less affected by the memory crisis. The segment is projected to grow by 1% in 2026, with Apple outpacing the broader market due to the full-year availability of the SE 3 and Watch Ultra 3 models. The year 2025 marked Apple’s first comprehensive smartwatch portfolio refresh since 2022.
Another factor supporting growth is the lowering of entry points into Apple’s ecosystem. Apple has already introduced more affordable products, including the iPhone (e), Watch SE 3, and now the MacBook Neo. The company aims to make its ecosystem accessible to a broader consumer base, a strategy that is likely to work in its favor as competing OEMs raise prices in response to higher memory costs.
