It was the year of the debutant on the world stage. And it was a spectacular one.
As with any debuts, the curiousity level about the new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sky-high, with all world leaders vying to meet him to create a personal rapport with the leader of about 1.5 billion people.
It is rather bemusing to look back at the commentaries before Modi took office – which everyone asserting that economy and domestic affairs will hold his attention in the first few months. They could not have been more wrong.
By the end of the 2014, he spent a whole month – about 30 days – outside the country, visiting eight countries, with Nepal twice.
Some frames are certainly likely to find a space in his personal photo album – Modi standing with eight foreign leaders standing together on the dais at swearing-in ceremony in front of illuminated Rashtrapati Bhawan, a spotlighted Modi in the darkened Madison Square garden with an adoring audience, one of his frequent stops abroad to get out of the security bubble to shake hand with ‘ordinary people’, his handshake with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, sharing the presidential limousine with US president Barack Obama, Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping swinging together on the riverside and his turn at the drums in Japan.
When he came in, the mandarins at South Block were a nervous lot – waiting to see what changes Modi would bring in the workings of the ministry itself. Now at the end of 2014, the judgment is not that much – except perhaps an occasional grumbling about the stress on Hindi.
The Prime Minister’s office continues to have supremacy over foreign policy – but at the same time, role of MEA has slightly grown as National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has an intelligence background, unlike his predecessor.
The PM is known to demand very thorough briefings on all issues, many of which have happened late into the night. During meetings with foreign leaders, He sticks to the brief, with only a stray philosophical thought thrown in, if the subject is a bit unfamiliar.
The key catchphrases for his diplomacy are chiefly two – “neighbourhood first” and “act east”. The former was inaugurated by the swearing-in guest list and the subsequent two foreign trips to Bhutan and Nepal in quick succession.
In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to say that perhaps no Indian leader has been as popular even in neighbourhood populations with anti-India sympathies.
Modi’s speech before the Nepal constituent assembly, undoubtedly, is a game-changer. But, as observers point out, the main problem as with other countries is the capacity to quickly implement its promises – an perennial with which the ministry of external affairs is not just hobbled by manpower, capital and the general bureaucratic inertia in the rest of the government.
With Pakistan, despite promise of the bonhomie at the swearing-in ceremony, the relations have still not returned to keel from the cancellation of foreign secretary talks and the heavy border firing. The handshake at the Saarc summit, despite the media hype, did not change the substance of the ties.
At the same time, Modi and the Indian government made all the right gestures after the horrific Peshawar school attacks. If the cynicism returned in a day, it was due to Pakistan court allowing bail to Lashkar-e-Toiba commader Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi. He is still behind bars, but it is clear Lakhvi and Hafez Saeed continue to be treated as tools of state policy by influential quarters in the Pakistani establishment.
PV Narasimha Rao’s “Look East” morphed into “Act East” this year – the phrase first unveiled by external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj during her trip to Myanmar earlier in the year. From the first trip outside the subcontinent to Japan, followed by visits to Myanmar, Fiji, Australia, the region was there on the top of the Indian foreign policymaker’s mindscape.
But, when India goes there, the comparisons inevitably is to the giant in the north. Modi, who had gone to Beijing as a chief minister with specially made Chinese language visiting cards, met with the Chinese leadership several times this year – both inside and outside India. However, it seems that the relationship has still not settled.
The bitter taste of long stand-off at the border just as President Xi arrived in India will linger for a long time – especially when Modi pulled out all the stops, with a personal guide through Gandhi’s ashram and the Sabarmati riverside.
However, the biggest victory on the foreign policy front was certainly his US visit – with even the court case filed by some small group, casting barely a shadow on the triumphalist tone. From the poverty summit at central park to Madison square garden to the corridors of White House, Modi clearly enjoyed playing the statesman.
So what’s his big picture achievement? He has created a brand for himself in the global stage, managed to establish rapport with counterparts and also ready to do more adventurous ventures – like a trip to Fiji to meet with leaders of Pacific nations.
The negatives are what can be called the incomplete agenda – getting back 49 hostages from Iraq, finishing projects, implementing promises. The failure to convince BJP’s own Assam unit, yet again, to back the land boundary agreement with Bangladesh is one of those disappointments.
And therein lies the vulnerability of Modi’s stress on foreign policy. If he uses his projection as a world leader to burnish his domestic image, then any change in mood in world public opinion – over which he really can’t exert full control - will likely impact him here too. If instability and bad news from home spreads outside, it will not take much to move the current celebratory welcome of Modi to the more negative part of the mood spectrum.
The hard slog will start now, as the initial sheen has started to wear off. In the first six months, the foreign media was pleasantly surprised by Modi saying all the right things – but as 2014 went into history, the mood soured a bit with reports of extremist organizations taking to the streets, strident remarks by MPs and minister, as well as, a dysfunctional parliament.
That’s still in the future. For now, Modi can look back at the last eight months with a touch of smugness.
Looking ahead in 2015
- Visit of US president Barack Obama to India as republic day chief guest – first ever such honour by a US president
- Presidential polls in Sri Lanka on January 8 where Mahinda Rajapaksa is getting a surprising fight from Maithripala Sirisena for a third term
- Visit to Germany in April to inaugurate Hanover Industrial Fair
- Hosting the 3rd India-Africa Forum Summit which had been postponed due to the ebola crisis.
- Push for United Nations Security Council reforms on occasion of 70th anniversary of UN
- Visit to Pakistan which will host the next SAARC summit