Ascend doesn’t always mean assent in politics. Oracles, both real and in the media, are weary of predicting Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to Congress President, having run out of inspiration from their ephemeris. The reason behind the delay is the fear of a karma backlash, which, insiders say, worries Sonia, but is one Rahul refuses to comprehend.
He blames his failures on the existing schematics. He believes only his tactics can revive the Congress—a welfare state template diametrically opposite of Modinomics. The truth is it doesn’t matter if Rahul becomes boss, Priyanka is brought in or Sonia stays on. The Congress is not going to win elections for a long time, even if Modi performs badly. This is because Sonia and Rahul have completed the task Indira started—finishing off its entire regional leadership.
Indira was always insecure of being upstaged by powerful state leaders. Her past actions suppurated the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, a state which will make or break Rahul. She crushed giants like Kamalapati Tripathi and HN Bahuguna whose stature and political skills empowered the party. Jagannath Mishra, the doyen of Bihar Congress, had to accept the humiliation of her hegemony. The great Biju Patnaik walked out and remained undefeated in Odisha as long he was alive. In Gujarat, Chimanbhai Patel, Amarsinh Chaudhary and Madhavsinh Solanki were unwilling supplicants. Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress is not even a shadow, had Shyama Charan Shukla, Arjun Singh, Motilal Vora and Digvijaya Singh; two are now family satellites. In Karnataka, the base of S Nijalingappa, Devaraj Urs, R Gundu Rao, Veerendra Patil, S Bangarappa, S M Krishna and Veerappa Moily is lost. Kamaraj’s exit from the Congress probably sparked its decline in Tamil Nadu. Proud leviathans like Y B Chavan and Sharad Pawar resisted Indira’s iron fist. Powerful leaders like K Karunakaran, G K Moopanar and even Pranab Mukherjee were brought to heel by the dynasty and its myrmidons. Sitaram Kesri’s rebellion was short-lived. P V Narasinha Rao was the exception that proved the rule.
The myth that the Gandhis alone can win elections and hold the party together is perpetrated by themselves and their cohorts who are destined for history’s garbage heap. Like Indira, Sonia ran the Congress and its states from Delhi. She is realising too late that without powerful regional leaders, the money to fight elections, organise meetings and lead the cadres will not be forthcoming. She also realises a regional resurgence will sideline Rahul. Party treasurer Vora is discreetly desperate for funds. Congress has no chief minister who can raise dosh from businesses and party members. Nor is India Inc obliging, because they think the Congress story is over. Indira
Gandhi’s paranoia has come home to roost.
Only a split, post Rahul’s coronation, will save the Congress. Afterwards, a long haul—perhaps for decades—awaits, for a new leadership to emerge to challenge the BJP’s growing powerful pan-India strength. During the freedom struggle, mass leaders with strong regional bases such as Sardar Patel, Rajendra Prasad and Maulana Azad had emerged. History usually repeats itself. The Gandhis will fight till the last Congressman, but is the party ready to write its own obituary?
ravi shankar ravi@newindianexpress.com