This week, Niti Aayog put out a perspective on where it sees India in 2032. It is not called a plan, nor is it called vision-whatever. It is simply titled ‘Creating a Movement for Change’. Without much ado, it lists aims, objectives and an agenda of sorts. Conventional wisdom suggests forward plans must cover a time horizon of five, 10, 20 or 25 years. This perspective—curiously—looks at a 16-year horizon. You could call it Mission 2032—the grand ambition of the Modi Sarkar.
Typically, the document is shorn of economic theology, subscribes to the thesis of politically viable aspiration, and is an expanded wide-screen version of the ‘things to do’ approach. It is a headline grabber alright. Consider its most striking objectives. It envisages India to be a $10-trillion economy by 2032 and a @NITIAayog tweet declares, “Our aim: To create 175 million jobs & achieve zero per cent BPL population by 2032...”
The question that begs an answer is whether the promise is backed by premise. In a seminal study, The Invisible Gorilla, Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons reveal and elaborate on what they call “the illusion of attention” and the limitations of awareness. Mission 2032 is a well-intentioned and ambitious document that lists many granular details, but is intriguingly silent on macro issues—on necessary and sufficient conditions that are required to make the agenda happen.
It bears mention that there is only one country in the recent past that has grown its economy at a sustained 10-plus per cent rate—namely, China. The timing of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms was serendipitous that it caught the tailwind of consumption by baby boomers and benefited from the stupendous 5-plus per cent rate of global growth between 2003 and 2007. It also achieved 90-plus literacy and six years of schooling to enable skills training.
Can India grow at 10 per cent? Of course it can. It has nudged past the 9-plus per cent GDP growth for three successive years. The moot point is what was the context? It happened along with global growth. What about sustained growth? The question is not really whether India can sustain 10 per cent growth but whether global growth—in the era when ‘secular stagnation’ and ‘new mediocre’ are the buzz words—will be supportive. The document is silent on the global factors that impede and propel growth.
Consider the other challenge: creating 175 million jobs in 16 years, that is 10.9 million jobs a year. The answer is data-dependent. And employment data, as this column illustrated recently, is in the domain of known-unknown. Between 1999 and 2004—the Vajpayee years—India did create nearly 60 million jobs in five years. Again, if one looks at the economic census for the period 2005-2013, India created 36.2 million jobs in eight years—and that would run well short of the target.
The perspective put out by Niti Aayog owes its etymology to the eight committees of bureaucrats formed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to create a bank of ideas for transformation—some of which found place in Budget 2015. In informal interactions with the officials, this columnist had indicated that the potential for growth was embedded in solutions—for instance, the creation of a national grid for agri goods, which has been announced, will connect farmers with marts and create jobs and growth.
Fiscal support and incentives for roof-top solar and potable water management start-ups will generate jobs and growth. A real-time, deadline-bound recruitment process can alleviate unemployment—there are over 11 million vacant posts of teachers and police personnel across the country since 2012. If the government creates a one-time grant to convert census towns into municipalities, it would systemise urbanisation, create capacity and promote job creation.
To be sure, Mission 2032 enumerates the many moving parts that will make the economy accelerate. It does list many steps that have been taken. For instance, the progress achieved on financial inclusion, the initiatives on direct cash benefit transfer, higher investment on railway and roadways, on food parks and so on. The perspective, however, is eloquently silent on the big gorillas that haunt outcomes in the political economy—for instance, the concurrent authority structure that precludes efficiency at the Centre and in the states.
The biggest where, how and if is about resources—the 12th Plan had estimated India needs $1.2 trillion just for physical infrastructure. Even when and where there is money, the utilisation capacity is woeful. The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Rural Development has a litany of programmes, including flagship schemes, where funds were left unspent.
There are other gorillas rendered invisible—the fiscal fragility of states, for instance. India is a Union of States and growth per force must be propelled by collaboration with the states. The RBI’s report on states’ finances reveals while pension liabilities have doubled between 1997-98 and 2014-15, “capital expenditure of states has remained almost stagnant”. It has also observed a disconcerting “stagnation in expenditure on education and health”, which is prerequisite for harnessing the demographic dividend.
The 24-slide presentation is split into sections on ideation, action points on eight themes, and way forward. The ideation articulated deserves better attention to detail—on the approach to the issues, on action and detailing on the way forward. Clearly, these are early days. There can be no quarrel with the aspiration of Mission 2032. To translate the aspirations into reality, the Modi Sarkar must convert this into a grand challenge of opportunities—invite public participation on solutions and collaboration for execution.
shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com
Shankkar Aiyar is the author of Accidental India: A History of the Nation’s Passage through Crisis and Change