It’s a scramble to dissect what Donald Trump and his presidency will mean for the United States and the rest of the world, but the initial indicators are loud and clear. For starters, the names the President-elect has chosen to fill his Cabinet positions signal the coming chaos. Trump has been deliberately provocative – most of those selected for the top jobs have little experience, and have qualified only because of their hard right positions and their personal loyalty to Trump.
Before the ‘Howdy Modi’ camp in India begins celebrating, they must be warned Trump is bad news for India – heavy tariffs on exporters, mass deportations for illegal entrants and more visa restrictions for starry-eyed Bengaluru techies.
Controversial names
Meanwhile, the administration in Washington is struggling to come to terms with the names Trump has mocked them with. Congressmen, including Republicans, are aghast for example, with the choice of Matt Gaetz to head the Justice Department as Attorney General. Gaetz, a former Florida Congressman, has been investigated by the FBI, a body he will now control, on sex-trafficking charges; and lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have demanded the findings be released. Trump’s agenda is different. Through his election campaign he promised retribution against the Department of Justice (DoJ) – a department he railed against for unfairly targeting him with cases and convictions. Gaetz, who has promised to dismantle both the DoJ and the FBI, is just his man for the job to intimidate those who had gone after Trump.
The choice of Pete Hegseth as defense secretary, and Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence has also raised eyebrows. Hegseth, a popular Fox News host and an army veteran, has no experience in administration, and has only loyalty running in his favour. He is, as a confirmed misogynist, in step with the boss, making it clear that combat roles for women in the forces would be dismantled.
Tulsi Gabbard, on the other hand, didn’t make it on ‘loyalty’. She crossed over from the Democratic Party only in 2022 after a failed campaign for presidential nomination, that was backed of all people by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the RSS. Now tipped to head 16 spy agencies, Gabbard has sent shockwaves among the intelligence community because of her inexperience in the field and her perceived ‘soft’ approach to Russia and Syria. What Trump critics don’t see is Gabbard reflecting what Trump stands for – building bridges with Russia while isolating China.
Another Trump pick who didn’t have ‘loyalty’ on his side is Robert F Kennedy Jr. who will head health and human services. He has been notorious for spreading anti-vaccine fears and has threatened to sack thousands of Food & Drug Administration (FDA) personnel – hardly an ideal choice for US’ health secretary. Another heavy handed choice is the appointment of Thomas Homan as ‘Border Czar’. Earlier, a police officer and then heading Immigration and Customs in the previous Trump administration, Homan promises to be a brute on the borders; and has promised a wave of outbound flights to deport undocumented immigrants.
What do these indicators mean? In the short term, the immigrants – an easy, voiceless scapegoat – will be the first on the receiving end. Border skirmishes and deportations is what the Trump regime will start with. On the Ukraine front, Trump may force a ceasefire on Vladamir Zelensky threatening to cutoff arms supplies. Putin will then be allowed to swallow up Ukrainian territory already taken. The Gaza war may be more difficult as the Hezbollah-Hamas axis is not interested in a limited ceasefire.
Impact on India
In the longer term, Trump is clear he wants to erect a ‘Fortress America’ so its wealth is not ‘stolen’ away by the likes of Mexico, India and China. One can expect a high tariff regime. China will be the worst hit with a possible 60 percent tariff on imports, India too will not be spared. Higher tariffs could be crippling to industries like India’s labour intensive diamond polishing units who export about 45 percent of output to the US.
Trump’s anti-immigrant line will also be seen in high penalties and even jail terms for visa overstays and those caught entering illegally. This could deal a big blow to India’s IT sector which relies heavily on the US market for orders and receives a large portion of US work visas.
Trump’s pick, Stephen Miller for Deputy Chief of staff for policy, is clear he wants a rollback the H-1B visa programme – a scheme where corporates can import skilled personnel when local talent is not available. “America is for Americans, and for Americans only,” he recently ranted at Trump’s final Madisan Square Garden rally.
Finally, Trump is big bad news for climate change and environment. The internation conference on Climate Change – COP29 – has opened in Azerbaijan under the shadow of a US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. The domino effect is already being felt – Two days into the two-week session at Baku, and the Argentine delegation has packed its bags and left. Trump is a believer in fossil fuels which he unabashedly displayed at his election rallies with the tag line: “Drill baby, drill”! Tapering off crude production is not on the cards. In fact , he made it clear he will restart oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, reversing a move by the Biden administration to cancel leases in the frozen wilderness. Indeed, it will be a rough ride ahead!
