Indian equity markets are expected to begin Thursday’s session on a cautiously positive note, tracking supportive global cues and modestly improved risk appetite, though domestic trading is likely to remain range-bound and selective. Early indications from offshore index futures suggest a firmer opening after a muted close in the previous session, when benchmarks struggled to build sustained momentum amid mixed sectoral trends and lack of strong domestic triggers.
Global sentiment is relatively constructive this morning, with Asian markets mostly higher following stable overnight cues from the US, where equities found support in selective buying in technology and defensives.
However, the undertone remains cautious as investors continue to weigh the broader implications of global trade tensions, geopolitical developments and commodity price movements, particularly crude oil, which remains a key variable for Indian markets. Any sharp move in oil prices could quickly influence sentiment, given its impact on inflation expectations, the current account and corporate margins.
Back home, the technical setup points to continued consolidation rather than a decisive directional move. The recent inability of frontline indices to decisively reclaim higher resistance zones suggests that traders may continue to adopt a buy-on-dips approach within a defined range rather than chase rallies.
Support levels are expected to hold barring any negative global surprise, while upside may face resistance as investors book profits on minor rallies. Volatility has eased marginally in recent sessions, indicating reduced fear, but it remains sensitive to global headlines and expiry-related positioning.
“The markets are expected to begin the session on a steady note, reflecting overnight gains on Wall Street – led by technology counters –and a constructive tone across Asian markets in early trade,” says R Ponmudi, a senior market analyst and CEO at broking and wealth tech firm Enrich Money.
Institutional flows will be closely tracked throughout the day. Foreign portfolio investors have shown signs of stabilising their activity after a volatile phase, which has helped arrest sharper declines in the market. However, flows remain headline-driven and can quickly turn opportunistic.
Domestic institutional investors are expected to continue providing a degree of support, particularly in large-cap names, though participation in the broader market may stay uneven.
Stock-specific action is likely to dominate trading, with investors reacting to corporate developments, sectoral cues and valuation comfort. Interest is expected in select pharmaceutical, power, metals and infrastructure-linked stocks, while financials may see mixed trends as traders assess near-term growth visibility against valuations.
Activity could also pick up in a few public sector names and recently listed stocks, especially where news flow or expectations around policy support and balance-sheet improvement persist.
The derivatives segment may add to intraday volatility, encouraging range-bound moves and sharper reactions around key technical levels. Traders are likely to stay nimble, with a preference for short-term opportunities rather than aggressive directional bets, until clearer signals emerge either from global markets or domestic macro data.
Overall, while the near-term tone for Indian equities appears mildly positive, the absence of strong domestic triggers and lingering global uncertainties suggest that Thursday’s session may see cautious optimism rather than a broad-based rally. Markets are likely to remain in consolidation mode, with selective buying, stock-specific moves and disciplined positioning defining the day’s trade.