MUMBAI: Gold and silver have remained on fire for the umpteenth session, with the yellow metal rallying 4.72%, or Rs 7,205 per 10 grams, to hit a new high of Rs 1,58,270 for the February futures contract, while silver futures for March delivery surged 3.46%, or Rs 11,190 per kg, to Rs 3,34,862 on Wednesday on the MCX.
At the same time, precious metals rallied to dizzying global highs, with gold touching $4,877 per ounce (28.35 grams), up 2.38% in late CME trade on Tuesday. Silver, however, was marginally lower at $94.60 an ounce, compared to $95.35 earlier.
The sharp surge pushed gold and silver ETFs higher by up to 8% in domestic markets on Wednesday. The rally was further fuelled by a massive sell-off in equities and a sharp plunge in the rupee, which hit a fresh all-time low of 91.30 in early trade.
Globally, stock markets remain under pressure, triggering a flight to safety into gold and silver amid heightened risk-off sentiment. This follows former US President Donald Trump’s bid to annex Greenland and the announcement of punitive 10% tariffs on eight of NATO’s largest members for not supporting the move, beginning next month, along with a reciprocal hardening of Europe’s stance against Trump.
Gold futures with February expiry jumped over 5% to breach the Rs 1.58 lakh per 10 grams mark. Contracts for April and June expiries rose 5% and 6%, respectively, to hit fresh all-time highs of Rs 1,66,048 per 10 grams and Rs 1,71,620 per 10 grams.
Silver futures for March delivery surged around 3.5% to cross the Rs 3.3 lakh per kg mark for the first time ever. Meanwhile, May and July expiry contracts jumped 4% and 5% to Rs 3.47 lakh and Rs 3.61 lakh per kg, respectively.
Among gold ETFs, Invesco surged nearly 8% to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 13,900 per unit. ICICI Prudential, LIC, Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss and Axis gained over 7% each, while BNP Paribas, Groww, Tata, Quantum and Kotak rose nearly 7%. Angel One, Zerodha, Aditya Birla and DSP advanced more than 6%, while Union, HDFC, SBI, Nippon and Mirae Asset gained over 5%. Choice, UTI and others climbed nearly 5%.
In the silver ETF space, Tata Silver ETF rallied around 7% to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 33.50 per unit. Aditya Birla and Mirae Asset gained about 5% each, while Axis and Nippon climbed nearly 4%. Zerodha, ICICI Prudential, DSP, Edelweiss and UTI rose over 3% on Wednesday.
Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, told TNIE that the rally in precious metals is being driven purely by risk-off sentiment, as Trump’s proposed 10% tariffs on eight EU nations from February 1—escalating to 25% from June 1 unless an agreement is reached on the “complete and total purchase” of Greenland—has left markets on edge.
“Against this backdrop of rising geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty, gold demand has strengthened sharply, with prices potentially extending their rally towards $5,000 per ounce as risk-off sentiment persists,” she said, adding that gold has already crossed resistance at $4,750, with the next major resistance seen at $5,000, or around Rs 1,65,000 domestically.
For silver, the next upside targets are seen at $99–100 (₹3,50,000) and $107 (₹4,00,000), while on the downside, $90 (₹3,05,000) remains a strong support zone.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, attributed the dizzying rally to rising global risk aversion driven by Trump’s Greenland policy, threatened tariffs on eight European nations, and Europe’s increasingly anti-Trump stance.
He also cited bleeding equity markets as a key factor. “There is no clarity on how the situation will evolve. If the threatened tariffs come into effect, Europe will retaliate, leading to a trade war with adverse consequences for global trade and growth. In such a scenario, stock markets will witness further selling,” Vijayakumar said.
“On the other hand, if Trump backs down as he has in the past or succumbs to pressure, markets could rebound. A united Europe has several options, including the much-discussed ‘sell America’ strategy, where US Treasuries are sold, leading to a sharp fall in the dollar. This would hurt Trump. Public opinion in the US is also against the Greenland annexation plan. Many unexpected developments are possible, and markets are likely to react sharply to any new triggers.”
Based on current fundamentals and technical indicators, HDFC Securities said the long-term bullish trend in gold and silver remains intact, with the potential to deliver extraordinary returns in 2026. However, it cautioned that any reduction in import duties on gold and silver in the upcoming Union Budget could put short-term pressure on domestic prices and act as a near-term headwind.
