Seat-sharing talks between Tamil Nadu's main opposition, the AIADMK, and its NDA partner the BJP have resulted in the saffron party being allotted 27 seats for the upcoming Assembly elections.
On paper, that is seven more seats than the BJP contested in 2021, of which it had won in four — Tirunelveli, Modakkurichi, Coimbatore South and Nagercoil. Yet, the choice of constituencies in 2026 tells a different story, suggesting that the Edappadi Palaniswami-led party may have strategically boxed its ally.
For starters, only two of these four seats have been retained.
State president Nainar Nagendran, who won Tirunelveli for a third time in 2021 — his first as a BJP candidate — is likely to contest from Sattur, which has a substantial Thevar vote base. Yet, the BJP would have been expected to retain Tirunelveli, where it recorded its highest victory margin in 2021.
That, however, was not to be, as the AIADMK appears to have reclaimed the constituency, where it has enjoyed considerable success, and where Nagendran himself won twice as its candidate.
Then comes the kerfuffle in the Kongu belt.
Western Tamil Nadu (which includes the Kongu belt) has been a pathway of sorts for the BJP to expand its base in the state, suggesting it would have pushed for a fair share of seats there. However, the party secured only six seats — Coimbatore North, Udhagamandalam, Modakkurichi, Tiruppur South, Avinashi and Rasipuram.
One ought to assume Vanathi Srinivasan, who won a tight three-way race in Coimbatore South, will contest Coimbatore North and may be in a position to carry the seat, while octogenarian C Saraswathi, who narrowly won Modakkurichi by a low three-digit margin in 2021, may seek re-election, though her chances look slim.
Meanwhile, the party has also retained Nagercoil, where octogenarian MR Gandhi won his first MLA seat in 2021 after five earlier attempts as a BJP candidate dating back to 1984. He may seek re-election, or former Union minister Pon Radhakrishnan, a Nagercoil native, could be fielded, giving the BJP a fair chance heading into polls.
But the gravy train ends here.
The party will contest in Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Tiruchendur, Tirupattur, Tiruvannamalai and Avadi — all traditional DMK strongholds.
Similarly, the BJP had pushed for a few seats in Chennai, primarily eyeing Velachery and Harbour, but ended up with just one: Mylapore, where former state BJP president Tamilisai Soundararajan has been fielded.
And in Kanyakumari district, the AIADMK has ceded four more seats — Radhapuram, Colachel, Padmanabhapuram, and Vilavancode — all Christian-majority, making it an uphill task for the Hindutva-plank party .
And the story of difficult odds is again similar across other constituencies.
Take Thalli, for example, where the BJP won once in 2001, but the seat has largely been held by the Congress, CPI, and DMK since its creation.
In Pudukottai district, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah visited earlier this year to participate in the BJP’s 'Thamizhagam Thalai Nimira Thamizhanin Payanam' yatra, the party has been allotted three seats — Pudukottai, Gandarvakkottai, and Aranthangi — but lacks the presence or candidates to convert efforts into electoral success, leaving it dependent on AIADMK support.
The same applies to Manamadurai, Madurai South, Ramanathapuram and Vasudevanallur, where there is little room and the BJP's prospects hinge on the AIADMK mobilising voters.
