THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With just a day remaining for the Kerala assembly elections 2026, the poll campaign is fully centred around one leader.
While an array of national leaders, right from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi in addition to Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Chief Ministers of both BJP and Congress-rules States, repeatedly flew down for the BJP and the Congress, the Left campaign was solely shouldered by CPM veteran Pinarayi Vijayan.
In the last lap, it's now more of a Pinarayi vs Pinarayi battle. The Revanth Reddy vs Pinarayi battle - a verbal duel between the two Chief ministers - on the last day of the open campaign has added to the PInarayi-centric battle.
While the CPM has been banking solely on its Captain to steer the Left safely to the harbour of power, Opposition UDF too has eagerly tapped into the anti-Pinarayi sentiment, harping on and on about his autocratic style.
Though an array of leaders, right from CPM general secretary MA Baby to veterans Prakash Karat, Brinda Karat and PB members in addition to CPI leaders are part of the LDF campaign, Pinarayi occupies centrestage due to multiple reasons - first: unlike the Congress or the BJP, the Left doesn't have many prominent national leaders; second: post-VS Achuthanandan era, Pinarayi has evidently emerged as the party's mass leader; third: most developmental and welfare measures in the last one decade are directly linked to one leader alone - Pinarayi himself; and finally absence of equally tall leaders in other Left-leaning parties including the CPI.
Throughout the current poll scenario, Pinarayi remains Left's sole flag-bearer - the one setting the narrative, responding to opposition attack, taking credit for its success and finally ending up having to face the barrage of criticism that comes as part of the electoral parcel.
While on one side, such a turn of events has made the Kannur leader the inevitable Captain, on the other hand, these very characteristics have made him the Opposition's sole target. His qualities that draw wide admiration among pro-Leftist voters, are the very features that top his critics' chargesheet against him.
What the Left cadres deem as determination and firmness, transform into charges of arrogance and autocracy by his opponents.
Political observer Sajad Ibrahim pointed out that the negative aura around Pinarayi appears to be gaining more traction, rather than his image as a champion of development and welfare.
"The masses generally tend to lean towards pleasing personalities. As far as the Left is concerned, it has just one bankable leader. Of late, his image has however taken a beating. Whether it's about his second cabinet which could not perform as well as the first one, or his silence on certain issues regarding communal politics, the negative campaign seems to be drawing more listeners," he observed.
This anti-incumbency sentiment is mostly directed against Pinarayi than against the government per se. With no other tall leader in its top tier and a relatively weak second-rung, the CPM has been relying heavily on the Pinarayi factor, observed political commentator G Gopakumar.
Even though a majority of LDF legislators are popular among the voters, the masses would cast their franchise, taking into consideration all aspects including the Captain's innate persona, he pointed out.
"Welfare measures, infrastructure development, leadership, new projects, poverty eradication, corporate policies et al have undoubtedly created the impression of a dynamically active government. This could well help the Left. But having said that, the negative campaign with only him in the spotlight has more takers. Public debt, unemployment and other critical issues being faced by the common man are being attributed to him. Each and every remark made by him, especially in the last lap, is sure to contribute significantly to the anti-Pinarayi campaign," he added.
However political commentator NM Pearson feels that the PInarayi factor in the final lap will add to LDF's energy.
"The credibility factor that Pinarayi enjoys will have its impact in the election. Even when they dislike him, they trust them and acknowledge that he has credibility. This could instill confidence in the minorities and the Left may win at least some votes that it failed to poll in the local body polls," he said.
Even those who oppose Pinarayi want him to steer the ship, maybe because there's no alternative - no towering personality - on the other side, he added.
Keen to cash in on this negative-Pinarayi factor, the UDF appears to have evolved its entire electoral agenda around it. In a strategic move, the Opposition has gone to great lengths to link the CPM strongman to each and every issue that gets dragged into the poll battle.
This is being done with a strategic eye on indecisive and neutral voters, in the hope that they'd be able to sway them in their favour. Even the Revanth Reddy episode in the last phase too is aimed at this aspect.
Notably both the LDF and the UDF, in spite of their claims of scoring a century, calculate that it could be a narrow margin this time. Hence the Pinarayi factor - whether in his favour or against - could prove to be crucial.
