KOLKATA: West Bengal's minority vote bank, the political bedrock that powered the TMC's rise and helped the party sustain through poll battles in the past 15 years, is showing signs of churn ahead of the 2026 assembly elections, with smaller Muslim outfits, a resurgent Congress in north Bengal and simmering grievances testing the ruling party's electoral fortress.
For the first time in over a decade, multiple players are vying for a slice of the roughly 30 per cent minority vote, a segment that influences outcomes in more than 114 of the state's 294 assembly seats.
Political observers said the emergence of players such as the Indian Secular Front (ISF) led by Nawsad Siddique, suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir's AJUP aligning with AIMIM, and renewed Congress activity in Murshidabad and Malda has injected a new layer of uncertainty into Bengal's minority electoral arithmetic.
They said such a development could become one of the defining undercurrents of the 2026 polls.
"Earlier, minority voters consolidated behind the TMC almost instinctively, largely because of the BJP factor.
But the emergence of new platforms and local grievances has created micro-level fissures that could hurt the ruling party in a tightly contested election," political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said.
The tremors are most visible in the other Muslim-dominated districts of Uttar Dinajpur and parts of South Bengal, where smaller outfits have begun mobilising support around questions of political representation, identity assertion and local development.
The ISF, which shot into prominence in the 2021 assembly polls after winning the Bhangar seat, has been attempting to consolidate younger Muslim voters disillusioned with mainstream parties.
Siddique, its lone MLA, has repeatedly accused both the TMC and the BJP of exploiting minorities electorally.
"Minorities are treated like milch cows that are used only during elections," he said, alleging that the three-term TMC government has failed to deliver real development.
Adding another layer to the churn is Humayun Kabir, the outspoken Murshidabad legislator who was suspended from the TMC after repeated attacks on the party leadership.
Kabir has floated the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) and is now aligning with AIMIM, positioning the combine as an alternative political platform for Muslim voters.
He believes the emotive issue of constructing a new Babri Masjid in Murshidabad, along with a growing sense of political assertion among Muslims, could influence the 2026 assembly polls.
He has even suggested that the next state government could, for the first time since Independence, see either a Muslim chief minister or a Muslim deputy CM.
"For establishing the Babri Masjid, if 100 Muslims go to vote, 80 of them will vote for candidates of the AJUP," he told PTI, asserting that his party would contest 182 seats and could emerge as a "kingmaker" in a fractured mandate.
The former TMC leader also argued that Muslims, who make up nearly 30 per cent of Bengal's voters, remain underrepresented politically.
"In our party, more than 100 candidates will be Muslims.
That shows who is serious about giving Muslims political representation," he said.
Congress is attempting to revive its traditional base in Malda and Murshidabad, districts where it once dominated Bengal's minority politics before the TMC's rise.
Senior Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said the party's improved performance in the region in recent years shows that sections of minority voters are reconsidering their political choices.
"In Murshidabad and Malda, our alliance with the Left increased the opposition vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
We even defeated the TMC in the Sagardighi bypoll in 2023," he said.
The former MP, who might contest the assembly polls, said the party wants to maintain a "70:30 binary" between the TMC and BJP even as opposition forces attempt to build a broader secular consolidation.
BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari repeatedly claimed that the minority vote would "split this time", alleging that sections of Muslims have "lost confidence in the TMC government".
The shifting political currents coincide with the SIR of the electoral rolls, which has drawn attention because many scrutinised voters are concentrated in minority-heavy districts.
District-level data shows Murshidabad has over 11 lakh voters under adjudication, followed by Malda with 8. 28 lakh, North 24 Parganas with 5.91 lakh and South 24 Parganas with 5.22 lakh.
Together, these districts account for nearly 100 assembly seats and have historically formed the backbone of the TMC's electoral success.
Another Kolkata-based political analyst said, "One argument is that deletions may hurt the TMC because many of these areas are its strongholds.
But there is another possibility - when voters feel their citizenship is being questioned, they may consolidate even more strongly behind the party they see as their protector," he said.
Controversies surrounding the amended Waqf law, disputes over OBC reservations, and concerns about madrasa recruitment and minority educational institutions have surfaced repeatedly in political discussions ahead of the polls.
Mohammed Kamruzzaman, general secretary of the All Bengal Minority Youth Federation, told PTI, "In seats where the BJP is relatively weak, some voters could shift towards smaller Muslim parties, the Congress or the Left.
That could split the anti-BJP vote and dent the TMC's traditional minority vote bank in certain pockets." The ruling party, however, remains confident that minority voters will ultimately rally behind it in the face of what it describes as attempts to divide secular votes."
The minorities know that only the TMC has consistently protected their interests. Parties such as ISF or AJUP are indirectly helping the BJP. Just like the past 15 years, minorities will stand by the TMC," state Minister Firhad Hakim said.
