KOCHI: With the first anniversary of the October 7 Hamas massacre just a day away, Israel has more or less decimated the Iran-backed militant outfit that carried out the brutal killing of over 1,200 Israelis last year. However, the year-long battle with the Palestine-based group has not only not ended, it has grown to become a much larger regional conflict with ramifications beyond West Asia.
Today, Israel is fighting a high-risk multi-front war with many of Iran’s proxies. In Palestine, it has reduced much of Hamas-controlled Gaza into rubble – which the UN says will take 15 years to clear—and continues to fight what is left of Hamas in the enclave; its forces have set foot in Lebanon after a year-long air strikes on Hezbollah targets, which culminated in the assassination of the group’s reclusive chief Hassan Nasrallah and other top leaders; in Yemen, a country that lies more than 2,000 km away, it has carried out multiple air attacks to destroy some of the ports and power stations controlled by the Houthis.
On the flip side, Israel continues to face major threats from its adversaries. Though the Sunni Islamic group Hamas has been fatally crippled, the Shiite outfits Hezbollah and Houthis are still managing to inflict damage, with the support of Iran. Last week, Israel said eight IDF soldiers were killed during a combat with Hezbollah in Lebanon. As for the Houthis, they have claimed to have hit several ships linked to Israel in the Red Sea. The Houthis also claimed to have hit Tel Aviv using drones and missiles.
In the midst of all this, Israel is now gearing up to open yet another front as it is planning to launch a direct and inarguably more dangerous battle with Iran itself. On October 1, Iran fired over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the assassination of its key allies -- Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Nasrallah in Beirut. There were no casualties in Israel as most of the missiles were intercepted or missed targets, but some military infrastructure was reportedly damaged. Iran also claimed its attack was just a fraction of its capability and it wouldn’t hesitate to set off bigger strikes and inflict greater pain on Israel, should the latter retaliate against the missile salvo. Experts say it is not a question of if, but when and how Israel will strike back. The battle lines are drawn.
Why attack Israel
Iran was the second Muslim country after Turkey to recognise Israel as a sovereign state. The relations with Israel were friendly during the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty, which ruled Iran from 1925 until it was overthrown in the 1979 revolution. Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who was known for his pro-Western orientation, was superseded by the theocratic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who declared Iran as an Islamic republic. The current Supreme Leader, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, hardened Iran’s stance against Israel and issued several provocative statements, calling it a ‘cancer tumour’ that should be removed. In a sermon in 2009, he reportedly said that his regime would support any country or group that fights Israel.
Iran is known to fund and support several militias that are antithetical to Israel. By employing these proxy terror groups, it tries to push its agenda and influence across the region. This asymmetric warfare helps Tehran target powerful adversaries such as the US and Israel without directly involving its own military. By supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and various militias in Iraq and Syria, Iran maintains plausible deniability while still shaping regional dynamics to its advantage.
Iran refers to its network of allied non-state actors as the ‘axis of resistance’. The policy to oppose Israel transcends even sectarian divides; despite being a Shiite regime, Iran supports Sunni groups like Hamas due to their shared ideology.
Tehran’s preferred route is to provide financial and military muscle to its proxies and direct them to fight its enemies. It rarely gets directly involved in the fighting. Why, then, did it engage in a head-on duel with Israel, which is sure to escalate matters to the detriment of Iran?
This is not the first time Iran has launched missiles at Israel from its soil. In April this year, it had launched a relatively smaller attack by sending a swarm of slow drones and a few missiles, in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its diplomatic mission in Syria that killed two Iranian generals and five other officers. At that time, Iran had given roughly three days notice before launching the attack, perhaps to minimise casualties but maximise optics. At that time, almost all of its 300-odd projectiles were knocked out of the sky by Israel and its allies.
In response to that attack, Israel launched a limited strike on Iran a week later. The attack damaged some military infrastructure located at the central province of Isfahan, which is home to a large airbase, a major missile production complex, and several nuclear facilities. Tehran said none was hurt in the attack and that it was leaving it there as it did not wish to escalate the conflict.
This time, however, Israel had a shorter lead time as it learned about the fast ballistic missiles just hours before Tehran launched them on October 1. Among the targets were the headquarters of Israeli intelligence agency Mossad in Tel Aviv and Nevatim and Tel Nof air bases. Of these, Nevatim is the largest Air Force base in Israel, which hosts F-35 fighter jet squadrons. This was also one of the primary targets of Iran’s previous attack in April. While the Iranian media claimed some of the F-35s were destroyed, Israel is yet to react to it. Other reports said part of the airport was hit but the fighter jets were all airborne at the time, doing combat operations.
When Iran attacked Israel in April, ballistic missiles were calculated to take 12 minutes to reach Israel, cruise missiles two hours, and drones some nine hours to reach their targets. In the second direct attack on Israel from its soil, Iran claimed it used some advanced missiles, including the Fattah hypersonic missiles. According to Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War, the manner in which the missiles were deployed suggests Iran wanted to test Israel’s defence capabilities. Knowing that the IDF only intercepts missiles that fall on populated areas, Iran directed a large number of missiles to a very small geographic area in the densely populated central Israel. “Iran likely intended to inflict significant damage on Israel by oversaturating Israeli air defences, particularly in central Israel,” it said in an analysis.
Like in April when Iran launched its attack, the US, the UK and Jordan came to Israel’s rescue this time as well to intercept missiles. But there is a question mark on whether they will support an offensive against Iran, which is certainly coming.
Possible scenarios
According to reports in Israeli and US media, Israel is contemplating a multi-pronged strategy to attack Iran. First, it will go after Iran’s military installations, especially those producing ballistic missiles, and take out air defence systems and missile-launching facilities. Such an action may be deemed as proportionate as it reduces the risk of civilian casualties. However, there are calls for Israel to go all in and overwhelm Iran with multiple targets. Among them is former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, who is eyeing another shot at power. “We have the justification. We have the tools,” he said, calling for an immediate strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and energy facilities.
Israel could target Iran’s oil rigs and refineries to crush the country’s oil-dependent economy. Among the targets could be the Kharg Island, which hosts Iran’s largest oil terminal that handles 90% of the country’s oil exports. According to reports, The National Iranian Tanker Company has started pulling out Very Large Crude Carrier supertankers ahead of an imminent Israeli attack. An attack on the oil infrastructure is a risky proposition as it can have unforeseen consequences. A wounded Iran may target petroleum assets in Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, triggering shortage in supply and increase in prices. Iran may also consider planting sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the busiest sea routes and the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
US President Joe Biden is trying to wean Israel away from attacking Iran's oil infrastructure. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” he said, adding “I think — I think that would be a little — anyway.” He said the Israelis are not making a decision immediately, partially because of the high holidays.
Impact on India
The crisis could impact India as well, as the bulk of its oil purchase from West Asian countries pass through this region. India does not import Iranian oil due to US sanctions. China is Iran’s largest crude oil buyer, estimated at over 1 million barrels per day. If Iran’s refineries are blown up and pipelines destroyed, China is likely to turn to Russia and other sources for its energy needs, which may in turn put pressure on the supplies available for India. Apart from Russia, India buys large volumes of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq.
To limit the impact on the global economy and its allies, Israel could consider the option of hitting only those refineries that serve Iran’s domestic needs. In this scenario, the Persian Gulf Star plant in Bandar Abbas could be a likely target, as it is the most important domestic source of gasoline for Iran, which meets 40% of the country’s needs. Such a surgical strike would also cause an economic upheaval for Iran, which is reeling under years of US and international sanctions.
Iran’s nuclear sites
Also on Israel’s wishlist is an aerial strike on the nuclear sites to ensure Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme doesn’t progress. However, given that most of Iran’s nuclear sites are buried deep underground across the country, Israel would need the help of the US to identify and destroy them. But since Biden is advising a calibrated, proportional response, nuclear sites could be off the list for now. For, any targeted attack on its nuclear facilities would give Iran the excuse to bolster its nuclear weapons programme. This could also rally popular support for the theocratic regime, a scenario Israel would want to avoid.
Iran’s main nuclear sites include uranium enrichment centres in Fordow and Natanz, which are both deep underground buried under layers of rock and concrete. Fordow is said to be embedded deep inside a mountain and protected by a Russian missile defence system. There is also a large nuclear centre outside Isfahan that oversees a number of activities, including the production of centrifuge parts and uranium. Other potential targets include a partially built heavy water reactor plant in Khondab, as well as research centres and labs in Tehran. According to some reports, the only way to penetrate such underground sites would be by using the massive American-made GBU-57A/B bombs weighing 13.2 tonnes.
The US had used another version of this non-nuclear bomb, the GBU-43/B, dubbed the Mother of All Bombs, in April 2017 on Afghanistan’s eastern province of Nangarhar to smash a network of tunnels operated by the Islamic State.
Technically, Israel can take on Iran’s nuclear sites without US help. Israel has refuelling tankers for its attack planes, surveillance drones, and sophisticated F-35s. However, it may not be able to inflict the kind of damage that US bombers could achieve.
Regime change
Also on Israel’s table are targeted assassinations to decapitate the theocratic regime led by Khamenei. The veteran leader, along with his close associates, has reportedly moved to an undisclosed location fearing an attack on his life. Israel believes a change in regime in Iran is the need of the hour. Addressing Iranians directly through a video message last week, Israel prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “When Iran is finally free — and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different… Don’t let a small group of fanatic theocrats crush your hopes and dreams. You deserve better. Your children deserve better. The entire world deserves better.”
Netanyahu is not alone in seeking a regime change in Iran. Last month, speaking in the US, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi’s son and exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi said the current regime that supports hateful ideology must go. “We need to revive maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic," he said, adding: "We need to offer maximum support to the people of Iran, and we need to facilitate maximum defections from the regime, so that we can peacefully transition from this criminal dictatorship to the secular democracy the Iranian people are fighting for."
He also urged Israel to work with the people of Iran to oust the radical clerics who have ruled the country since overthrowing his father in 1979. Calling for funds to revive civil disobedience movements such as street protests and labour strikes, he said Israel’s aggressive policy against Iran’s proxies isn’t working. Reacting to each threat from these terror groups separately, as if they were independent, would leave Israel in a perpetual state of vulnerability, he said. “Merely fighting Hamas or Hezbollah will not deliver security for Israel, for America… You will be simply reacting, and your people will never have peace. The time of reacting to these reactionaries must come to an end,” he said in his speech at an event hosted by the Israeli-American Council in Washington, DC.
World War 3 or Cold War 2?
The situation is fluid and these regional skirmishes escalating into a global conflict remains a possibility. The US is already involved in supporting Israel militarily, though it is not in favour of a sudden escalation of matters, especially at a time when the Presidential elections are on. According to some experts, one reason Israel has chosen to become aggressive and defy US advice is the belief that there won’t be any strong pushback during the poll season. The same applies to Iran, which calculates the US may not want to get involved in another costly confrontation when it is already facing questions on its financial aid to Ukraine. However, there are several other factors at play and chances of the US being dragged to the conflict can’t be understated.
There is also the possibility of Russia or China throwing their weight behind Iran to balance the power equation. Such a scenario would be reminiscent of Cold War tensions where regional disputes lead to wider confrontations. As things stand, the current situation is precarious and could lead to further regional destabilisation, though not World War III. Parallelly, diplomatic efforts could also intensify, which could help tamp down the conflict.
Did Iran walk into a trap?
Iran’s mullahs have been repeatedly humiliated by Israel’s spectacular blows against their Hezbollah proxies, the latest being the widespread explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah men. According to Iran watchers, killing Nasrallah and 20 other leaders of the Lebanese outfit was the last straw for Tehran. The Iranian leadership’s failure to directly come to the aid of Hezbollah made it look weak, while its Lebanese proxy was boxed into a corner with its entire to team assassinated and hundreds of the battle-hardened fighters maimed in explosions, reducing the outfit’s deterrent value.
Under these circumstances, Iran had two options — do nothing and be considered a weak regime or take some action so that its proxies believe it is still a formidable force that can take on powerful adversaries. Iran chose the latter, with Khamenei personally ordering missile attacks on Israel on October 1. By doing so, Iran may have walked straight into an Israeli trap. According to some experts, this gave Netanyahu, who always wanted a war to destroy the regime in Tehran, a good excuse to set in motion his pet project. The Iranian regime is now staring at an uprising against it from within and a looming destruction from without.
Israel used to call its military operations a battle for existence. Now, ahead of the first anniversary of the October 7 attack, it may be the turn of the Khamenei regime to consider its actions a struggle for survival.
One year on, West Asia more dangerous than ever
1,200 Israelis slaughtered by Hamas on Oct 7. Whereabouts of 100 of the 250 Israeli hostages in Gaza still unknown. Over 41,000 killed in Palestine, most of them civilians; nearly 1 lakh injured, 90% of Gaza population displaced. Hamas almost smoked out. Houthis attack over 100 ships. Hezbollah headless after strikes in Lebanon, 2,000 killed, and 1.2 million displaced. Iran retaliates with 180 ballistic missiles, Israeli response imminent
