The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) revised outlook for the southwest monsoon points to a weaker-than-expected season, with rainfall now projected at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from an earlier estimate of 92 per cent. The downgrade has raised concerns over its potential ripple effects on agriculture, rural demand and food inflation, particularly in rain-dependent regions.
According to ICICI Bank Research, there is now a 60 per cent probability of deficient rainfall during the June–September monsoon period. The onset of the season has already been delayed, and June rainfall is expected to remain below normal across much of the country, raising concerns over the timing of sowing activities.
The report flags the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ)—comprising Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Maharashtra and Jharkhand—as a key area of concern. Together, these states account for nearly 40 per cent of India’s food production and are likely to receive below-normal rainfall this season.
Delayed and weaker rains, coupled with ongoing heatwave conditions, are expected to disrupt early sowing. The report also cautions that emerging El Niño conditions could further exacerbate the impact on the kharif crop cycle.
Regionally, northwest, central and southern India are projected to receive below-normal rainfall, while the northeast may see near-normal monsoon activity. The uneven distribution of rainfall is expected to deepen regional disparities in agricultural output.
Rain-fed crops are likely to bear the brunt of the shortfall. Pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and spices are particularly vulnerable due to their lower irrigation coverage and concentration in rain-dependent regions. By contrast, rice and wheat are expected to remain relatively insulated, supported by higher irrigation access and adequate reservoir levels.
The report highlights coarse cereals and pulses as facing the sharpest downside risks. Pulses are largely grown in central and northwestern India, while coarse cereals are concentrated across the northwest, central and southern regions—areas expected to see rainfall deficits.
However, the outlook is not without buffers. Reservoir levels currently stand at 31 per cent of total capacity, above the long-term average of 26 per cent. Foodgrain production also rose by 5.3 per cent year-on-year in the 2025–26 crop year, driven by strong output across rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses.
In addition, sizeable buffer stocks are expected to cushion supply shocks. Rice inventories are estimated at around 39 million tonnes, while wheat stocks stand at 42.8 million tonnes—well above mandated buffer norms.
Even so, the report warns that food inflation risks remain elevated, particularly for pulses, edible oils and other rain-dependent commodities. It projects retail inflation could edge towards 5 per cent in FY27, driven by weather-related disruptions and firm global commodity prices.
Ultimately, the trajectory of the monsoon—along with the evolving El Niño conditions—will be crucial in shaping agricultural output, inflation trends and broader macroeconomic stability in the months ahead.
(With inputs from ANI)
