NEW DELHI: Most major economies are expected to reduce their emissions further, while India’s total emissions may continue to grow as its economy develops by 2035, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) titled “The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return,” released on October 21.
However, the report emphasizes that the average Indian’s contribution to emissions remains comparatively low. India’s growing economy requires energy, which leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite this, the amount of greenhouse gases emitted per person in India is significantly lower than in most other major emitting countries. This indicates that the rise in India’s emissions from electricity generation, transportation, industries, agriculture, and other activities is a necessity dictated by its developmental needs.
The report further points out that the global temperature rise is projected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Urgent and stringent cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are required to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot and to return to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The report discusses a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario in which peak warming is limited to 1.7-1.8°C around the middle of the century, with a 50% chance of returning global temperature rise to or below 1.5°C by 2100.
Under current policies, only six G20 members—including China, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, South Africa, and Türkiye—are assessed as likely to meet their unconditional targets for 2030.
The assessment for the European Union remains inconclusive, the report states. Additionally, the new unconditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets for 2035 are expected to result in lower emissions compared to the 2030 targets for all G20 members with such targets, except for India.
The European Union is anticipated to see the largest absolute reduction in emissions, followed by China. The report acknowledges India’s commitment to achieving its new NDC target by 2035.
India may reach its 2035 climate target without necessarily reducing its total greenhouse gas emissions, while most major economies will need to take stronger measures to achieve their long-term climate goals.
If current policies continue, the report finds that global warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and potentially increase thereafter. Should all NDCs be delivered, and similar efforts persist, warming would be limited to 2.6°C.
These projections are worse than last year’s estimates, primarily due to the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised calculations of historical emissions.
New NDCs submitted since last year’s report have made a negligible difference to these projections. In even the most optimistic scenario—where all NDCs and additional net-zero targets are met—global warming would only be limited to 2.1°C this century.
Without urgent action, keeping peak warming below 1.7 to 1.8°C will quickly become impossible. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels raises the peak warming prediction by approximately 0.1°C.
Furthermore, the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario necessitates the removal and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 (equivalent to about eight years of 2024’s global CO2 emissions) over the course of this century. However, socioeconomic and technological challenges make achieving this goal uncertain.
