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Coronavirus: Social-distancing will flatten the curve, says research body ICMR

The mathematical modelling done by ICMR suggested that entry screening of travellers with symptoms of suspected coronavirus could delay its introduction.

Published: 24th March 2020 04:53 PM  |   Last Updated: 24th March 2020 04:55 PM   |  A+A-

A boy wearing a mask walks past parked rickshaws alongside a street during lockdown in the wake of coronavirus outbreak, in Kolkata

A boy wearing a mask walks past parked rickshaws alongside a street during lockdown in the wake of coronavirus outbreak, in Kolkata. (Photo| PTI)

By PTI

NEW DELHI: Strictly-implemented social-distancing measures will reduce the overall expected number of cases of the novel coronavirus pandemic by 62 per cent and the peak number of cases by 89 per cent, according to the country's apex health research body.

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Based on the initial understanding of the spread of the deadly COVID-19, the mathematical modelling done by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) suggested that entry screening of travellers with symptoms of suspected coronavirus could delay the introduction of the virus into the community by one-three weeks.

"Strictly-implemented social distancing measures, such as home quarantine of symptomatics and suspected cases, will reduce the overall expected number of cases by 62 per cent and the peak number of cases by 89 per cent, thus flattening the curve and providing more opportunities for interventions," the ICMR said.

It said that these model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more needs to be understood about the rate at which the infection transmits among susceptible individuals.

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The total number of novel coronavirus cases in the country rose to 433 on Monday after fresh cases were reported from various parts of the country. Seven deaths have been reported so far, according to the Union Health Ministry.

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