BHOPAL: The make-or-break assembly by-polls in 28 seats in Madhya Pradesh is witnessing a saffron surge. The BJP is now set for a clear-cut majority on its own in the 230-member Vidhan Sabha of the central Indian state.
As per the latest trends till 1.15 pm in the 28 seats that went to by-polls on November 3, the BJP was leading in 19, while the Congress was ahead in eight seats and BSP was leading in one seat.
Among the 19 seats where BJP was leading, it was ahead by convincing margins in at least 11 seats, including in Badnawar, Suvasra, Sanchi, Sanver, Nepanagar, Mandhata, Anuppur, Surkhi, Bamori, Gwalior and Hatpipliya, while it was leading by a margin of 500 to 4000 votes in at least nine other constituencies, including Gwalior East, Dabra, Joura, Ashok Nagar, Bada Malhara, Mungaoli and Pohri seats.
On the other hand, the Congress was leading convincingly only in the Bioara seat, while it was leading in a closely-fought contest in Dimani, Bhander, Karera, Mehgaon, Gohad and Agar seats.
The BSP, meanwhile, was maintaining a steady lead in the Morena seat.
Importantly, the BJP was doing exceedingly well in the seats in the Malwa-Nimar region, while it was also ahead with big margins in two seats in the Central MP and Bundelkhand region.
However, there was a close contest on BJP Rajya Sabha member Jyotiraditya Scindia's home turf, the Gwalior-Chambal region, where the Congress and BJP were engaged in fierce battle on at least 8-10 seats.
Importantly, 16 of the 28 seats, where by-polls was held on November 3 are located in the Gwalior-Chambal region.
Significantly, however, the BJP's performance was dismal in Morena district of Gwalior-Chambal region, where out of the five seats being contested, the BJP was leading (by a slender margin) in the Joura seat.
Morena district is not only part of Scindia's home turf, but is also the home district of state BJP president VD Sharma. Also, the five assembly seats of Morena district form part of union agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar's Lok Sabha constituency Morena.
While there were celebrations in the BJP camp, including at the state BJP HQ in Bhopal, the mood in the Congress looked pensive in the afternoon, as the trends began to solidify.
The state Congress chief and ex-CM Kamal Nath, who had in the morning exuded confidence about a Congress win, a few hours later, said, "in a democracy the electorate is supreme, whatever will be their verdict, we'll accept it with humility."
The Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan tweeted about the trends, saying, "The trends clearly reflect that people of MP have voted for development and public welfare politics of BJP."
If the trend of BJP leading in 19 to 20 seats continued till the evening, the BJP will now have much more than a simple majority on its own in the present 230-member Vidhan Sabha. The BJP presently has 107 seats and needs only nine seats for a simple majority of 116 on its own, while the Congress needed to win all 28 seats to reach the majority figure on its own.
Out of the 28 by-polls, 25 seats went to by-elections due to resignation by ex-Congress MLAs, who are now BJP candidates, while three seats fell vacant due to deaths of sitting MLAs.
19 out of the 25 Congress MLAs, who switched over to BJP after quitting the Vidhan Sabha are Scindia loyalists, whose resignation brought down the 15-months-old Kamal Nath government in March 2020.