LUCKNOW: With the first three phases of UP assembly elections over in western UP, Rohilkhand, central UP, and parts of Bundelkhand with prominent pockets of Jats, Muslims, and Yadavs, the stage is now set for the fourth phase of polling on Wednesday, February 23, over 59 seats spread across nine districts of Awadh, Terai and Bundelkhand regions.
In this phase, the seats going to polls fall in strongholds of both the BJP and the Congress. While the Samajwadi Party is trying to breach the saffron dominance of 201, BSP has the challenge of sustaining its relevance.
Phase -4 includes 16 reserved constituencies. Pilibhit, Lakhimpur-Kheri, Sitapur, Lucknow, Hardoi, Unnao, Rae Bareli, Fatehpur, and Banda districts will go to the polls on Wednesday. While Lucknow, Sitapur, Unnao, and Hardoi are considered to be the strongholds of BJP, Raebareli is the pocket borough of Congress. BSP is eyeing to make gains in Banda and Fatehpur.
A total of 624 candidates are in the fray from 59 Assembly seats. The maximum number of candidates - 15 – are testing the poll waters in Sawayajpur in Hardoi while a minimum of six candidates each, are contesting for two seats -- Palia in Lakhimpur Khari and Sevata in Sitapur.
In 2017, the saffron juggernaut had taken away 50 of 59 seats while one seat was won by its ally Apna Dal (S). Main opposition SP could win four seats, while two seats each were won by the BSP and Congress. This phase will witness a fierce battle for the state capital Lucknow having nine assembly segments of which the BJP had won eight and SP one in 2017.
In the fourth phase, the fate of four Yogi ministers including Brijesh Pathak, Ashutosh Tandon, Jai Kumar Singh ‘Jackie’ and Ranvendra Pratap Singh alias Dhunni Singh are at stake from Lucknow Cantt, Lucknow -East, Bindki and Hussainganj seats in Fatehpur district respectively. Even former ministers like SP’s Dr Abhishek Mishra and Manoj Pandey are also in the fray respectively from Sarojininagar seat of Lucknow and Unchahar of Reabareli.
While the BJP is facing the challenge of saving its pride in the stronghold of former PM and BJP stalwart Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Lucknow, SP is depending upon the anti-incumbency against some of the sitting BJP MLAs who are in the contest again and also some new faces fielded by the party.
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It will be interesting to watch how the Lakhimpur Kheri violence issue plays out in the poll arena on Wednesday. It may be recalled that Lakhimpur Kheri had hit the headlines after a farmers’ protest took a violent turn on October 3, 2021, and eight persons had lost life. The stir had gone violent after four protesting farmers were killed when the crowd of protestors was ploughed in by an SUV owned by Union Minister and sitting BJP MP Ajay Mishra Teni. In the aftermath, three persons were lynched by the angry mob. Teni’s son Ashish Mishra is the key
accused in the farmers’ killing case and has been granted bail recently by Allahabad High Court.
The opposition has constantly been targeting the BJP over the incident seeking Teni’s removal from the Modi cabinet.
This phase is crucial for the BJP which faces the challenge in Pilibhit of Terai region where its MP Varun Gandhi has been humming discordant tunes speaking up against his own party. Varun is BJP MP from Pilibhit, a farmer and Sikh-dominated constituency. In fact, both Pilibhit and Lakhimpur Kheri have a considerable chunk of the Sikh population who were rehabilitated in the Terai region after they took refuge in India following the 1947 partition. Now the community owns a huge expanse of farming land in the most fertile region of UP.
Moreover, the year-long farmers’ protest over three now scrapped farm laws has some resonance on the ground in the Terai region as it is believed that at least one member had joined the farmers’ stir from every Sikh family.
While the BJP is facing the challenge from rebel candidates in Sitapur, for the Congress, the biggest challenge of these elections comes in Rae Bareli as both the sitting Congress MLAs Aditi Singh from Raebareli Sadar and Rakesh Pratap Singh from Harchandpur, have turned rebels and are now contesting on BJP ticket.
Rae Bareli is the parliamentary constituency of Congress president Sonia Gandhi and the party will face major embarrassment if it fails to retain its citadel.