NEW DELHI: The nuclear-armed states are increasing the number of operational nuclear weapons, the think-tank SIPRI has stated in its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament and international security.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2023 released on Monday added that China's nuclear arsenal increased in the last one year and it could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the USA or Russia by the turn of the decade.
SIPRI's press release estimates that the size of China's nuclear arsenal "increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and it is expected to keep growing."
It went on to observe that "depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the USA or Russia by the turn of the decade."
"China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal," says Hans M Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS). "It is increasingly difficult to square this trend with China's declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces needed to maintain its national security."
India and Pakistan too appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, and both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2022.
"While Pakistan remains the main focus of India's nuclear deterrent, India (also) appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across China," said the report.
As per SIPRI, there are nine nuclear-armed states -- the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel -- and they continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals and many of them deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2022.
Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal, says SIPRI.
Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12512 warheads in January 2023, about 9576 were in military stockpiles for potential use -- 86 more than in January 2022.
Of those, an estimated 3844 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and around 2000, nearly all of which belonged to Russia or the USA, were kept in a state of high operational alert, meaning that they were fitted to missiles or held at airbases hosting nuclear bombers.
Russia and the USA together possess almost 90 per cent of all nuclear weapons. The sizes of their respective nuclear arsenals (i.e. usable warheads) seem to have remained relatively stable in 2022, although transparency regarding nuclear forces declined in both countries in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
In addition to their usable nuclear weapons, Russia and the USA each hold more than 1000 warheads previously retired from military service, which they are gradually dismantling.
Although the UK is not thought to have increased its nuclear weapon arsenal in 2022, the warhead stockpile is expected to grow in the future as a result of the British government's announcement in 2021 that it was raising its limit from 225 to 260 warheads.
In 2022, France continued its programmes to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as to refurbish and upgrade existing systems.
Factbox: India's nuclear triad
India is working towards maintaining its credible minimum deterrence. India carried out a successful flight test of its new-generation ballistic missile, 'Agni Prime', on Wednesday.
In the pursuit to develop a nuclear triad, India carried out a successful user-training launch of INS Arihant in October 2022. INS Arihant is an indigenous SSBN (subsurface ballistic nuclear) submarine. The Army and the Air force had acquired the capabilities to execute nuclear attacks much earlier.
The INS Arihant is the first of the four Arihant class attack submarines developed indigenously and is seen as an important component of India's nuclear triad. The submarine is of 6,000-tonne displacement with a length of 110 metres and a breadth of 11 metres. These submarines are designed to carry K4 and K15 SLBMs.
The SSBN programme is a key element of India's nuclear deterrence capability in its pursuit for "A robust, survivable and assured retaliatory capability is in keeping with India's policy to have 'Credible Minimum Deterrence' that underpins its 'No First Use' commitment", the Indian Ministry of Defence said then.
A nuclear triad is a three-layered military force structure that consists of nuclear bombs and missiles that can be launched through land, water and air. The land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers are the components of the triad.
The aim with the nuclear triad is to deter the enemy from initiating a first-strike attack as the reactionary second strike, would lead to an unbearable damage and cost to the attacking country.
INS Arihant was inducted in August 2016. The second in the class, INS Arighat, was launched in November 2021.