LUCKNOW: The recently announced seat-sharing agreement between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress presents challenges for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), led by Mayawati, as it navigates a triangular contest in Uttar Pradesh against the NDA and INDIA bloc for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The opposition alliance has designated 63 Lok Sabha seats for the SP and other constituent parties, while Congress will contest 17 Lok Sabha seats.
On February 19, the BSP President dismissed rumours of allying ahead of the Lok Sabha polls and asserted that her party will contest the elections on its own. However, the party’s conspicuous absence from poll buzz is making its sitting MPs doubtful of their prospects and hence they are
exploring options.
Afzal Ansari, the sitting BSP MP from Ghazipur, now figures in the list of SP candidates from the same seat considered to be his traditional stronghold.
Similarly, Danish Ali, the MP from Amroha, is likely to join the Congress after being suspended from the BSP following his fracas in Parliament with BJP lawmaker Ramesh Bidhuri, who hurled communal slurs at Ali.
Ali—suspended by the BSP for alleged "anti-party activities"—has been actively nurturing his constituency of Amroha, allocated to Congress in the seat-sharing arrangement.
In the present scenario, Mayawati faces the challenge of repeating her party's previous performance.
In 2019, the BSP had contested the general elections in alliance with the SP and the Jayant Chaudhury-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), reaping the maximum benefits by winning 10 seats.
However, in 2014, the BSP failed to open its account in general elections.
The Congress, in order to tame the saffron juggernaut in the state, had been pitching for the inclusion of BSP in the INDIA bloc, which already had SP and RLD. However, the Akhilesh-led party had reservations about Mayawati joining the alliance.
Meanwhile, the RLD switched sides, quitting the opposition bloc over differences with long-time partner SP over seat sharing.
Putting a lid on the speculation of joining any bloc, Mayawati had been reiterating that, from the earlier experiences, neither the Congress nor the SP succeeded in transferring their votes to the BSP.
So, she had decided to contest the Lok Sabha elections "on their own" with the "strength of its people."
On the other hand, to accomplish 'Mission 80', the ruling BJP is busy forging alliances with smaller players across the state.
As per the political pundits, the ruling alliance is likely to benefit from the current political equations, especially on the seats dominated by Muslims, backwards and Dalits, as their votes will be divided between the BSP and INDIA bloc candidates, which heavily rely on the minority and its core Dalit vote bank.
Significantly, in 2019, even in the presence of the SP-BSP-RLD grand alliance, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal (S) had managed to win 64 of the 80 seats. BSP had got 10, SP just five and Congress could save just Rae Bareli but lost its bastion of Amethi.
Similarly, in 2014, when all the parties had contested independently, the BJP and Apna Dal (S) combined had won 73 of the 80 seats.
"With Congress and SP fighting together, the Muslim voters' natural inclination will be towards the INDIA candidate, as the BSP is already a waning force in UP," says Prof. Ashutosh Mishra, a prominent political scientist.
As far as Dalits are concerned, the ruling BJP has made successful forays into the non-Jatav Dalit vote bank in a couple of previous elections by extending the benefits of welfare schemes.
"Jatavs are still loyal to Mayawati as she also comes from the same community," says JP Shukla, a political commentator.
With Mayawati inaccessible, the remaining eight sitting MPs of the BSP are unsure if they will even be re-fielded by the party.
Sources said the MPs are yet to be contacted by the party organisation as part of election preparations.
