NEW DELHI: The Southwest Monsoon of 2024 has finally covered the entire country six days ahead of schedule. The normal date for the monsoon to cover the entire nation is July 8. This early arrival is expected to boost the sowing of Kharif crops and ease food inflation in the coming months.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) advanced into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab, covering the entire country on July 2, 2024, compared to the normal date of July 8.
Earlier, the IMD had predicted an above-normal monsoon, over 106% of the long-period average between June and September.
However, the journey of the SWM has been haphazard so far. The country received an overall -11% deficient rainfall in June, the 7th lowest in the past 24 years.
The onset of the SWM was also early, arriving on May 30, two days ahead of its usual date of June 1 at the Kerala coast.
Monsoon progression was normal in the first week of June but later subdued in the rest of the country except South India.
Easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal branch of the SWM were weaker, while westerly winds from the Arabian branch were stronger. This resulted in a dry canal or tunnel-like system over the Indo-Gangetic plain (West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana), keeping the region dry and hot.
The SWM was delayed by 10-15 days in different parts of the East, North West, and Central regions of the country. The northwest regions received the highest deficit rainfall (-32.6 %) in June, followed by the East & North East regions (-13.3 %) and Central India (-13.2 %). However, the Southern Peninsula received above-normal rainfall by 14.2 %.
Further, the IMD underlined the reason behind the subdued rainfall activity over a major part of the country due to a weaker Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a lack of formation of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
However, the SWM revived around the third week of June and rapidly covered the country by July 2, six days early. The IMD observed a trend indicating a higher probability of above-normal rainfall if June experiences deficient rainfall.
In its monthly outlook for Rainfall and Temperature, the IMD stated that the country will receive above-normal rainfall, over 106% of the long-period average (LPA) in July. The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during July is about 280.4 mm. The IMD warned Odisha, Karnataka, Haryana, and some parts of UP, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand of the high possibility of extreme rainfall activities.
The monsoon is expected to intensify further in the second half of the monsoon season (August-September) as La Nina conditions are likely to develop while El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific are in a neutral phase. In India, the El Nino phenomenon is synonymous with a poor monsoon, whereas La Nina indicates a bountiful monsoon.
