LUCKNOW: The high-stakes bypoll to 10 assembly segments is a litmus test for both the NDA which suffered a huge setback in the Lok Sabha elections in the state and the INDIA bloc which faces the challenge of consolidating its position in UP after an emphatic comeback in the recent polls.
Moreover, the outcome of the bypolls to 10 assembly seats, necessitated by the victory of sitting MLAs in the Lok Sabha elections, will not only be decisive for the political atmosphere of the state but will also set the tone for the 2027 Assembly elections.
The BJP-led NDA dwindled to 36 seats from 64 in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party won 37 seats, its highest Lok Sabha tally ever, and the Congress raised its tally from one in 2019 to six of the 17 seats it had contested.
The NDA, which had sitting MLAs in five of the 10 seats up for grabs, will try its best to breach some of the strongholds of the opposition bloc, especially the SP which had sitting MLAs in the other five seats. It would certainly give a much-needed boost to the ruling alliance energising the cadre and helping it to overcome the disappointment.
If the ruling alliance fails to give an impressive performance, it could be taken as a referendum on the performance of Yogi Adityanath as his prestige will be at stake and it could intensify ongoing rumblings in the BJP. If the INDIA bloc continues its victory trail in the bypolls as well, its game plan to oust the BJP government from power in 2027 will get a boost.
While the Lok Sabha election was contested by the NDA in Modi’s name based on Amit Shah’s strategy, the responsibility of putting up a robust show in the bypolls will be entirely on the UP CM who has been under the scanner for the Lok Sabha debacle in the state.
However, Yogi, getting into poll mode, has already appointed a team of 30 ministers to oversee poll preparations in the 10 assembly constituencies. The ministers have been directed to visit constituencies regularly, interact with local people and party workers and redress grievances on priority.
A group of three ministers has been constituted and each group was allotted one constituency.
On the other hand, the INDIA partners -- SP and Congress -- have also commenced deliberations over seat-sharing for the upcoming challenge as both the parties have decided to contest the bypolls also in alliance.
Even the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), in a departure from its traditional stand of not contesting bypolls, has said it would field candidates in all the 10 seats making the contest three-cornered.
Mayawati had reinstated her nephew Akash Anand as the party’s national coordinator and had announced in June that Akash would lead the byelection campaign. Nine assembly seats, including Karhal, Katehri, Kundarki, Khair, Manjhwa, Meerapur, Milkipur, Phulpur and Ghaziabad Sadar, have been vacated after the sitting MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha.
The Sisamau seat was vacated following the disqualification of sitting SP MLA Irfan Solanki, who has been awarded a seven-year jail term by a court in a criminal case. In the 2022 assembly election, the Samajwadi Party bagged five of these seats – Karhal, Katehri, Kundarki, Milkipur and Sisamau. The BJP won three seats -- Khair, Phulpur and Ghaziabad Sadar. The NDA ally RLD, who was then with the SP, won Meerapur and the NISHAD party bagged the Manjhwa seat.
However, this time, the BJP's allies are demanding a bigger share of the seats. While the RLD is demanding three seats, the NISHAD party is also trying to go beyond one.
KARHAL
An SP stronghold in Mainpuri district. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav won the seat in 2022. Akhilesh vacated it after winning the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat. The SP is likely to field a Yadav family member in the byelection. A difficult seat for the ruling alliance.
KATEHRI
Once a BSP stronghold and laboratory of Dalit politics in UP, Katehri in Ambedkar Nagar was vacated by Lalji Verma, the sitting SP MLA after winning the Ambedkarnagar Lok Sabah seat. The SP may field a Verma family member or an OBC leader to retain it. The presence of the BJP and BSP will make the contest three-cornered.
MILKIPUR
The Milkipur assembly seat in Ayodhya district is in the limelight after sitting MLA Awadesh Prasad defeated BJP candidate Lallu Singh from the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat. The SP may field Awadhesh Prasad’s son in the bypoll which is likely to witness an interesting contest as the BJP will try to wrest the seat from the SP.
MANJHWA
The Manjhwa seat in Mirzapur district fell vacant after sitting Nishad Party MLA Vinod Kumar Bind won the Bhadohi Lok Sabha seat on the BJP ticket. A traditional BSP seat, the BJP won it in 2017. The riverine community vote is decisive here.
PHULPUR
The Phulpur seat in Prayagraj was vacated by sitting MLA Parveen Patel after winning the Phulpur Lok Sabha constituency. The seat is likely to witness a tough contest between the SP and BJP for OBC votes in the by-election.
SISAMAU
The Sisamau seat in Kanpur district was vacated after SP MLA Irfan Solanki’s disqualification after a court convicted him in a criminal case. Solanki won the seat in the 2012, 2017 and 2022 consecutive assembly elections. The SP may field Solanki’s wife from here. The BJP is working to wrest the Sisamu seat from the SP.
KUNDARKI
A SP stronghold, Kundarki seat in Moradabad was vacated after by sitting SP MLA Zia-ur Rehman Barq after winning to Sambhal Lok Sabha seat. There is speculation that the BJP might field a Muslim candidate for the seat.
KHAIR
Assembly seat in Aligarh vacated after election of sitting BJP MLA Anoop Pradhan Valmiki to the Hathras Lok Sabha seat. With Dalits and Jats dominant, BJP hopes to retain the seat with the RLD’s support. The Congress may stake claim to the seat.
GHAZIABAD SADAR
Vacated after election of sitting MLA Atul Garg to the Lok Sabha from Ghaziabad constituency. An urban seat, considered to be a BJP stronghold. The BJP is confident of retaining the seat in the byelection. The Congress is likely to stake its claim in the bypoll.
MEERAPUR
Assembly seat in Muzaffarnagar vacated by sitting RLD MLA Chandan Chauhan, who won the Bijnor Lok Sabha seat. The seat may go to the RLD. The SP is working to wrest Meerapur from the RLD.
