BENGALURU: In a first-of-its-kind retaliatory move, the Indian government has suspended the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir.
The decision marks a significant escalation in diplomatic pressure and is expected to severely impact Pakistan's water flow and agriculture.
This unprecedented action comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing a public rally in Madhubani, Bihar, delivered a strong message promising to punish every terrorist and their backers, signalling a shift from previous responses.
In his first public address after the Pahalgam terrorist attack, Prime Minister Modi, without naming Pakistan, said: “Ab aatankwadiyon ki bachi khuchi zameen ko mitti mein mila dene ka samay aa gaya hai.” (It’s time to raze to the ground whatever little land terrorists have).
He then switched to English to deliver a message to the international community: “Today, from the soil of Bihar, I say this to the whole world, India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth,” said the PM in his signature promising style.
Unlike previous instances, this time Modi’s tone was not rhetorical, and the message came across as deeply assertive. Having raised the pitch, he is unlikely to scale it down.
After the deadly Uri attack in September 2016, in which 19 soldiers were killed, India had launched 'surgical strikes' across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting militant launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Three years later, in February 2019, following the suicide bombing attack in Pulwama that claimed the lives of 40 Central Reserve Paramilitary Force (CRPF) personnel, India responded with the Balakot airstrike, targeting militant camps deep inside Pakistan — their first such move since 1971.
Pakistan retaliated with air raids, resulting in a dogfight and the brief capture of Indian Air Force pilot Abhinandan Varthaman.
In contrast to those earlier occasions where Modi refrained from open confrontation, this time he has spoken his mind on a public platform. The winds of change are visible.
In a historic and rare show of unity, Kashmiris reacted in solidarity against the Pahalgam attack. Businesses and educational institutions across the valley shut down on Wednesday, and protest rallies were held condemning terrorism.
Many pledged their allegiance to the Tricolour and declared such heinous acts against innocent people as being contrary to the ethos of Kashmiriyat and Islam. This reaction is seen as a direct counter to Pakistan's decades-long anti-India narrative of 'Kashmir banega Pakistan', and the recent comments by their army chief Asim Munir, who referred to Kashmir as Pakistan's "jugular vein".
In dealing with Pakistan, India has both military and diplomatic options on the table. While military action has not been ruled out, its timing and execution remain strategic questions.
The movement of the aircraft carrier INS Vikrant in the direction of Pakistan indicates pressure is building. India may consider withdrawing from the fragile 2021 LoC ceasefire, which would likely result in cross-border firing. While military actions come with the risk of collateral damage, the government appears willing to accept that cost in defence of its credibility.
On Wednesday, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) announced a series of retaliatory measures, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. In response, Islamabad called the move "an act of war" and threatened to withdraw from all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1972 Simla Agreement — a peace accord signed after the formation of Bangladesh.
Reverting the LoC to the old nomenclature of the ceasefire line, however, would not alter the reality on the ground. Notably, the Simla Agreement commits both countries to respect each other’s positions, avoid the use of force to change borders, and resolve issues bilaterally. Pakistan has repeatedly violated these tenets.
India, a signatory to the Geneva Convention, has decided to hold the IWT in abeyance — a move that permits the country to stop sharing flood data with Pakistan and reduce water flow from the western rivers. This is expected to adversely affect Pakistan's urban and agricultural sectors.
India may also push to re-list Pakistan on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, citing the continued presence of terrorist infrastructure on its soil. Being grey-listed would severely restrict Pakistan’s access to international financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, further straining its already weakened economy. The Ministry of External Affairs has briefed ambassadors from major capitals about the Pahalgam attack and is actively seeking global support.
