NEW DELHI: The imposition of steep 50% tariffs on Indian exports by the Trump administration has delivered a sharp jolt to the US-India trade relationship and strategic partnership, once seen as a cornerstone of Washington’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy.
Now, a chorus of seasoned former US officials and long-time India watchers are warning that Washington’s coercive approach could do lasting damage.
At the center of the rift lies a convergence of trade and geopolitics. President Donald Trump’s renewed threat of an “economic war,” primarily aimed at Russia, has pulled India into deeper into the crossfire, too.
The blunt-force tariffs targeting key Indian exports such as textiles and garments sectors critical to India’s small and medium enterprises (SMEs) has the potential turning the win-win ties to a lose-lose affair.
For Mark Linscott, a former US Trade Representative official who led trade negotiations with India, the fallout is emblematic of squandered opportunity.
“Unfortunately, the United States and India have managed to convert what appeared to be a true and unprecedented win-win on trade into a remarkable lose-lose,” he said.
“Trade talks on reciprocal tariffs are now on ice while both sides stew over Russian oil purchases.”
What makes the current situation particularly concerning for analysts is the broader strategic context. The US has long positioned India as a counterweight to China in Asia and a key partner in its “China+1” supply chain diversification strategy. Yet, the tariff escalation threatens to derail this very vision.
Nisha Biswal, former US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia and a leading voice on US-India commercial ties, points to the immediate and structural risks:
“The new 50% tariffs on India, now the highest of any US trading partner, will be hugely disruptive, pricing Indian goods out of the US market and straining small businesses in both countries. Worse, it casts doubt on the China+1 strategy and creates uncertainty for companies that had shifted production to India”.
Veteran strategic analyst Ashley Tellis believes the entire crisis could have been avoided with a more thoughtful approach.
“What a tragic and unnecessary outcome,” he said.
“Trump could have gotten what he wanted from India on Russian oil and trade through diplomacy rather than posturing. India may bear the short-term pain, but it is the US that will pay the bigger price over time.”
Indeed, the long-term risk isn’t just lost trade—it’s strategic drift. By pushing too hard, Washington may inadvertently push India closer to Beijing’s economic orbit, reversing years of hard-won alignment.
Still, as Biswal says, a path forward is not out of reach: “A direct engagement between Modi and Trump could restore trust and strike a workable agreement.”
