Bihar poll results show nothing 'grand' about Grand Alliance; Opposition needs to reinvent itself
NEW DELHI: Bihar poll results show that there is nothing "grand" about the Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan. The near-rout of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led front by the JD (U)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) makes it imperative for the Opposition to re-invent itself before the next year's assembly elections. Put simply, it is soul-searching time for Rahul Gandhi and other opposition leaders.
After the completion of several rounds of counting, the grand old party, the Congress is staring at one of its worst electoral performances in the state. Leading only in a few seats out of the 61 seats it contested, and its strike rate was in single-digits.
In 2020, the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats. The Congress won 19 seats.
While the NDA's landslide victory is being attributed to its wider caste coalition, the Mahagathbandhan failed to reinvent its social base, although it roped in Mukesh Sahani’s Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP) and the Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) led by IP Gupta.
Though the Opposition was hoping to consolidate its support among various caste groups, particularly the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), even with the entry of VIP, that experiment failed.
The result also shows that the EBCs, who constitute 36.01 percent of the total population of the state, once again emerged as the cornerstone of the NDA’s victory. The Mahagathbandhan’s gamble to announce Mukesh Sahani, the Mallah leader, as Deputy Chief Minister did not pay off. Sahani's party had contested in 12 seats. Another backward caste party, the IIP also failed to draw votes.
The game changer in the election was the overwhelming support for the NDA among women across caste lines. The Rs 10,000 cash transfers and welfare schemes, including lakhpati didis, announced by the NDA ahead of the elections seemed to have helped. The results also show that the Grand Alliance’s focus on unemployment, migration and job creation did not cut ice with the voters.
Marred by internal division, leadership gaps, and organisational weaknesses, the Congress, a key ally in the coalition, struggled to project unity from the start.
The deadlock over seat-sharing negotiations, public disagreements among constituents, and a stream of resignations further dented the party’s prospects.
The unease between the RJD and Congress over seat distribution did significant damage. The disputes not only slowed campaign momentum but also raised questions over the alliance’s ability to stay together.
The blame game has already begun with RJD insiders acknowledging that the Congress’ poor strike rate dragged down the entire alliance.
The grand old party did not benefit from Rahul Gandhi’s ‘vote theft’ charges and the campaign against Election Commission of India (ECI)’ s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls. In fact, the Congress failed to win a single seat in the constituencies along the route that Rahul took during his ‘vote adhikar yatra’.
With crucial elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala coming up, the drubbing must serve as a wake-up call for the Opposition and the Congress in particular. Efforts must be made to avoid mistakes made in Bihar while taking on an NDA that is the India's best-oiled election machine at the moment.