LUCKNOW: BJP-led NDA’s landslide victory in Bihar might have a cascading effect on Uttar Pradesh politics too, given the demographic similarities between the two States.
On one hand, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, who was the co-convenor of the Bihar election, asserted: “Magadh jeeta, Awadh bhi jeetengey. 2027 mein 2017 dohrayenge (After winning Magadh (Bihar), we will Awadh (UP). Will repeat 2017 in 2027).”
On the other hand, Samajwadi Party chief vented his ire on the BJP, calling it a ‘party of deceit’, attributing Mahagathbandhan’s Bihar failure to the Special Intensified Revision (SIR) of the voter list.
In his first reaction to the Bihar results, the SP chief warned the NDA that SIR would not help it in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and UP, since the political conspiracy is exposed.
He added that the PPTV (PDA Prahari) would be his party’s vigilante to counter the BJP’s ill designs.
While the BJP is yet to react to Akhilesh’s claims, many X users said the SP chief was beating around the bush rather than going in for serious introspection.
However, the NDA in UP, comprising the BJP, Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal, Suheldev Bahratiya Samaj Party (SBSP), NISAHD and Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), would look to work out the same strategy in the 2027 state assembly polls to bolster its electoral fortunes.
It would look into cementing its clout among non-Yadav OBCs and MBCs, or EBCs, as they have strengthenedned their bond with the NDA in the neighbouring state.
Meanwhile, political analysts believe that the Bihar outcome would give some relief to the BJP-led NDA, which was concerned after a disappointing show in the Lok Sabha polls 2024 in UP, as its tally had dwindled from 64 in 2019 to 36.
At the same time, the performance of the Congress party in the Bihar elections could force Akhilesh Yadav to review his party’s tie-up with the grand old party for the UP elections, analysts add.
There could be certain takeaways from the Bihar polls for UP.
"The continuing popularity of PM Narendra Modi and the strategic brilliance of Union Home Minister Amit Shah have kept the BJP on a firm footing, election after election. They have done it earlier in UP and can repeat the magic in the State,” opined a senior political commentator.
Similarly, the common factor between Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and UP CM Yogi Adityanath is the element of popularity and mass appeal.
If Nitish Kumar, nicknamed as ‘sushashan babu’ (able administrator), has been able to have a conspicuous traction especially among women voters for his schemes, Yogi’s clean image and appeal among the women voters, especially on the law and order front, helped him sail through in the 2022 assembly polls for a second term.
And, like Nitish, who had no or little anti-incumbency even after remaining 20 years in office, anti-incumbency failed to strike Yogi Adityanath in his 9th year as UP CM.
Akhilesh Yadav has failed to emerge as a formidable choice to challenge Yogi’s popularity, feels Dr AK Mishra, a political scientist.
At the same time, the better coordination among allies on the lines of Bihar, where BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas) and RLM worked in tandem to tilt the results in their favour, in UP too, BJP, Apna Dal (S), Rashtriya Lok Dal, NISHAD party and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party can bring electoral gains in the 2027 assembly polls.
On the other hand, the worry for Opposition parties led by the Samajwadi Party is more visible. If Akhilesh deserts Congress in UP polls, his party could face a split in minority votes. Similarly, SP’s efforts since the LS polls to woo Jatavs among Dalits might also hit a roadblock.
However, given the political and caste matrix in UP, the picture may not be as bright as it looks for the BJP-led NDA nor as gloomy for the SP-led INDIA bloc.
