The reunion of the parties of the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar following Nitish Kumar’s exit from the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) will undoubtedly cast a shadow on the prospects of the BJP in 2024. Whether the shadow would be long or scattered would depend on which direction the opposition wheels move in the coming months, but of the Bihar realignment splattering the pages of the BJP’s arithmetic book with ink, there is no doubt.
It may adversely affect the BJP in the following ways.
The BJP tally may shrink in Bihar. The state has 40 Lok Sabha seats. The party’s national core committee has set a target of 35 seats in 2024. It sounds fantastical, considering it won 31 seats in 2014 in alliance with the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) and 39 seats in 2019 in alliance with the JD(U) [Janata Dal-United] and the LJP.
Today it does not have any of those allies. The JD(U), which brought Nitish’s vote (EBCs, women, mahadalits, cross-caste appeal, pockets of Muslim vote), is gone. The RLSP, which gave
it the Kushwaha vote, has dissolved into the JD(U). The LJP, which brought it the Dalit vote, is split into two. The BJP has one LJP fragment with it, the RLJP (Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party), headed by the party founder Ram Vilas Paswan’s brother Pashupati Paras. Pashupati’s ability to deliver the founder’s Dalit vote bank to the BJP is very doubtful as Chirag Paswan, Ram Vilas’s son, who heads the other fragment, maybe the more natural inheritor.
Its second significant disadvantage is the rebuilding of the Grand Alliance. When the GA parties—the JD(U), the RJD, the Congress, the CPI, the CPI(M), the CPI(ML-Liberation) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAMS)—fought the BJP separately in 2014, they could win only nine seats. But with their votes combined, they were ahead of the BJP in as many as 30 constituencies by 20,000 to 1,00,000 votes. The BJP was ahead of them by 20,000 to 1,00,000 in merely six constituencies (Valmiki Nagar, Purvi Champaran, Muzaffarpur, Sheohar and Gopalganj in north Bihar and Patna Sahib in south Bihar).
Imagine that was in 2014, when EVMs were bursting at their seams with Modi votes. By 2024, some of his magnetism might wear off. And that means the BJP would be struggling to defend even the six seats where it was significantly ahead of GA in 2014.
It may spur opposition alliances. A JD(U)-RJD reunion was considered improbable. But it has happened. The message it has sent to the opposition across the country is that these are extraordinary times, and the parties opposed to BJP politics must sink their differences and come together. “The BJP is on an annihilatory mission,” says the Bihar message. “All the parties in the opposition unite, or you will perish!”
It may spoil BJP’s Pasmanda game. In recent times, the BJP has been trying to woo the Pasmandas (backward classes among Muslims) in Bihar, UP and other states of the Hindi heartland. The party has achieved great success in mobilising the votes of labharthis (beneficiaries of the Modi government’s social welfare programmes) among lower-caste Hindus based on a “Modiji gave you benefits, you give him your vote” deal. It has been trying to use the same coaxed barter formula with the Pasmandas. It told them, “See, we are not against Muslims. Didn’t Modiji give you the same benefits he gave the poor Hindus?”
In Bihar, the Muslim vote is with the RJD. And the majority of them are Pasmandas. They are loyal to the RJD because the party has stood by them all along. Despite being labharthis, they might not move to the BJP, for they see the party as grossly anti-Muslim. An isolated BJP after Nitish’s exit will be more bellicose, brazen and brawly towards the Muslims. That would only widen the gulf between them and the party.
The Pasmandas in Bihar respected Nitish even though they did not vote for him because he kept Hindu extremism at bay, included them in EBC categories, and did them other favours. With him returning to GA, the Pasmandas feel more spirited to fight Hindutva. The new combative spirit among the Pasmandas of Bihar might engender a similar mood among the Pasmandas of UP and other states.
Nitish may be the PM candidate. In the build-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, Nitish had emerged as the strongest challenger to Modi in public perception.
After separating from the BJP, he is again seen as a potential opposition PM candidate. Nitish might find support for his candidature among the Lohiaite ‘Janata Dal parivar’ parties—the RJD, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Samajwadi Party and the Indian National Lok Dal. JD(S) president H D Deve Gowda has already indirectly endorsed him.
If Rahul Gandhi decides not to be the UPA’s PM candidate, Nitish could most likely be the choice. The opposition parties, such as the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, are hostile to the Congress and might be willing to support Nitish.
Modi has turned the Lok Sabha elections presidential. He has acquired a cult status. Only someone with an incorruptible, decisive, credible and visionary image can be a strong alternative to him. Nitish may fit the bill.
It may consolidate the opposition vote. Even if Nitish is not a PM candidate, he will be a very important UPA leader. That would surely add to the attraction of the average Bihar voter toward the opposition front and the voter’s shift away from the BJP. In UP, it might pull significant chunks of the Kurmi vote to the opposition front. Besides, it might reanimate the anti-BJP voters across the country who were sinking into pessimism owing to the atrophy of the Congress and thinning hope for opposition unity.
Independent journalist and author of ‘The Battle for Bihar’