For the last five weeks, news from the strategic domain has been only related to the ongoing war in Gaza and its spinoffs. A conflict zone which had stabilised to a great extent in the wake of ISIS’s defeat in 2018 and appeared to be on the path of peace, however tenuous, suddenly awoke to a trigger which threw it back onto a path of intense conflict in one region, with threats to engulf many other sub-regions. While India’s geopolitical and other interests are deeply enmeshed with West Asia, its own strategic rise demands that it balances its focus with other significant regions. To that end, the recent 2+2 Dialogue with the US held in New Delhi last week was an occasion for the strategic community to take stock of developments elsewhere and examine the progression of our interests.
Except for the joint statement put out by the foreign ministry, nothing much in terms of analyses has appeared in the media, thus allowing an important strategic event to go by. The joint statement covers almost every angle. Besides the good work on integrating the defence industrial ecosystems of the two countries and the encouragement to startups, India’s full membership of the multinational Combined Maritime Forces, headquartered in Bahrain, was mentioned in positive terms. These are the incremental steps in the maritime domain which happen from time to time, adding weight to the campaign which commenced with the inception of Exercise Malabar in 1991.
My attention was taken by a short paragraph on counter-terrorism, which seemed to underline most of my concerns about the future. We need to be mindful of the fact that the Israel-Hamas war may end or dwindle to lower levels in the near future since the current high intensity cannot be sustained. That is when the spawning of terrorism outside the Gaza-Israel sphere will once again begin. The first cycle of global terror ended around the time of the pandemic. The second cycle was a certainty and the Israel-Hamas war plus the instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan will ensure its triggering in the near future. The situation in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region has been festering for some time and the build-up of capability by various terror groups has become evident.
The war initiated by Hamas appears to conceptually consider that conventional and hybrid methods for some time will draw Israel into the conflict, but the latter will not be able to sustain this, much like the US in Afghanistan; at some point in time, Israel will have to give it up. Till then, Hamas thinks that the people of Gaza will suffer and accept their fate just like Afghans did. This is a faulty assumption; the two situations are vastly different. What is more likely to happen is a spawning of new and reinvigorated terror groups in the West Asian region. That is why it was heartening to see that the Dialogue in New Delhi considered and included in the declaration issues such as the Financial Action Task Force, measures against money laundering, and the determination to counter new forms of terrorism and violent extremism, emerging and evolving technologies such as unmanned aerial systems and the internet’s use in promoting terrorism. Considering their mutual interests, India and the US must cooperate in the field of intelligence much more intimately to obviate a situation such as the one on October 7 in their homelands.
Expectedly, the declaration focused far less on Ukraine, where the conflict seems to have momentarily petered out in intensity. Discussions veered around the effect on food and energy security of the Global South in particular, and the necessity to reconstruct Ukraine. This war has not ended—only its intensity has waned due to dilution of resources on both sides. Perhaps this is the time for initiatives. There is no victory in sight for either side. A quiet back channel may work in a year when Joe Biden is looking for success in any sphere to shore up a flagging re-election campaign.
While mutual cooperation issues took up the bulk of the Dialogue, which is how it should be, the arrival of India at a higher table perhaps requires both nations to view larger international issues with a little more interest. India is a cooperative partner to that extent, where it does not insist on too much jingoism in any of the Dialogue statements. The Indo-Pacific, one of the key components and reasons why the subject of partnership was at all broached, received only a brief mention. That, however, is acceptable since neither the US nor India is looking for any activation of Indo-Pacific sensitivities and tensions. There is enough happening in West Asia and Europe for the world to get involved with instead of instigating more war fronts.
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One is content to see the Dialogue examine brasstacks cooperation such as people to people contact regarding visas and students in particular. Trade and health are the other avenues. Pandemic preparedness and response, health safety and security, universal health coverage, access, equity, and communicable and non-communicable diseases are some of the areas mentioned for future cooperation. With bilateral trade moving towards $200 billion despite the lean years before, it is nowhere near the contemplated $500 billion that both nations seek. Science and technology cooperation is progressing well but we need to proactively build strategic partnerships in emerging technologies such as quantum computing, telecom, biotechnology, artificial intelligence and semiconductors to accelerate innovation and benefit both economies.
Despite the noble intent of cooperation across multiple spheres, it is geopolitics which holds sway, with West Asia the flavour. The Dialogue preferred not to give any signals but correctly mentioned the need to release hostages, condemned terrorism and asked for humanitarian assistance to be extended, including pauses in hostilities to ensure it. Sooner rather than later, a more proactive stance will probably have to be taken by both partners to examine ways by which separation between the parties to the conflict can be ensured through UN peacekeeping arrangements.It was a low-key Dialogue by past standards, but with ticks on the right boxes while also setting the course for cooperation on vexing issues.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)
Former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps. Now Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir