Fertility decline: A success story or cause for concern?
India’s declining fertility rates, once hailed as a success of family planning policies and socio-economic progress, are now the subject of renewed debate. Recent statements by the CMs of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu and the RSS chief underscore a pressing issue: the implications of India’s declining fertility for economic growth and sustainability.
Despite achieving replacement-level fertility, India now faces the challenge of below-replacement fertility, which presents new socio-economic hurdles.
India’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 2.0 in 2019-21, below the replacement threshold of 2.1. Urban areas report a TFR of 1.6, while rural areas remain at 2.1, with only five states—UP (2.3), Bihar (3.0), Jharkhand (2.3), Meghalaya (2.9) and Manipur (2.2)—exceeding this level. Equally important is the net reproduction rate (NRR), which for India is below 1. It suggests the total population will gradually decline as there aren’t enough daughters being born to replace the current generation. Can India capitalise on this change for sustainable development, or does it signal an impending crisis?
India has long been seen as poised to benefit from a demographic dividend—a youthful working-age population that could drive economic growth. However, this is contingent on policies that translate a large working-age population into actual economic participation. India’s persistently low labour force participation rates pose a significant challenge. So, can India fully harness its demographic dividend when a substantial portion of its population remains economically inactive or underemployed?
The window of demographic opportunity is closing in many southern states. While Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh had the longest demographic dividend periods, these are nearing their end. In contrast, northern states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, which are still experiencing higher fertility rates, are now positioned to benefit. However, this advantage will only materialise if investments are made in healthcare, education and job creation.
Fertility decline, while largely seen as a success, has gendered and medical implications. While it is attributed to educational and health advances, it is essential to recognise fertility choices are not always voluntary. Rising infertility among women, coupled with socio-economic pressures, may lead to unintended consequences that could strain India’s demographic trajectory.
For example, the declining fertility rates in South India may also be driven by rising infertility rates. Research by S Kundu, B Ali and P Dhillon (2023) published in PLOS One reveals the region has higher rates of secondary infertility (states with elevated infertility also showing lower fertility rates).
Other factors such as rising youth unemployment, economic insecurities, and the high costs of healthcare and education are driving couples to limit family size. This trend, coupled with a preference for sons, negatively impacts the NRR and exacerbates gender imbalances.
Globally, the perils of sustained low fertility are evident. Countries that have experienced significant fertility decline, such as China, Japan and several European nations, offer cautionary tales. Despite strong government policies, they are now grappling with aging populations and the resulting economic stagnation. China’s infamous one-child policy, once a model for population control, has left the nation struggling to reverse its demographic decline. Despite policy reversals, incentives and social protection nets, fertility rates remain low.
India, with its democratic framework and limited social protections, is even less equipped to address these challenges. India risks facing similar pitfalls without the safety nets that richer nations possess.
To improve fertility decisions in India, providing uniform access to quality education across all segments of society could be a transformative solution. The layered nature of India’s education system presents a significant challenge, but addressing this gap may positively influence family planning choices. In parallel, migration offers a powerful tool to address socio-economic challenges, as exemplified by Delhi. Despite its low fertility rate, Delhi has maintained a prolonged demographic dividend through migration, which has extended its working-age population and supported sustained economic growth.
Southern states, facing similar fertility declines, could adopt a migration-based strategy to attract young workers from other regions, while accounting for regional disparities. Additionally, improving healthcare access to address infertility could restore fertility rates.
Lastly, fostering demographic education is pivotal for addressing the complex sustainability challenges India faces. Despite its critical importance, formal training in demography remains scarce. Expanding these educational initiatives and integrating demography into broader academic disciplines could significantly deepen societal understanding of population dynamics. Just as premier institutions like IITs offer humanities courses to foster interdisciplinary perspectives, a similar approach to demography—across economics, sociology, and public policy—would prepare future generations to engage with the intricacies of demographic shifts.
Sensitising society to the importance of demographic dynamics and related indicators, grounded in facts and reality is essential for fostering long-term socio-economic stability and demographic resilience.
(Views are personal)
Balhasan Ali | Researcher (demography and labour), Institute of Economic Growth
Rachna Singh | PhD scholar, Banaras Hindu University