There is little that is original in history. Most rulers are singularly unimaginative. But the abiding principles of social responsibility have remained the same: equality for all, freedom from hunger, disease and poverty. In an ideal world, a government’s role is to ensure these for its citizens.
In the political world, not so much. India’s food subsidy bill, which was Rs 2.87 lakh crore in FY23, will be Rs 1.97 lakh crore this fiscal. Its overall subsidy bill could be Rs 50,000 crore, to be paid largely from middle-class pockets. The Politics of Dole has been the election-winning ticket since Independence. The BJP, which has taken many a leaf from the Congress playbook, has made welfare a bedrock of its election strategy.
Go back a few centuries; the pattern is the same. Between 146 BC and 31 BC, the Roman Republic started the Grain Dole; the state gave citizens grain at a marginal cost or for free. This burdened the exchequer, as Rome’s population burgeoned. In 58 BC, Julius Caesar rationalised the number of recipients. The needy got more grain, and he received mass support. Emperor Augustus institutionalised the Grain Dole. State welfare subsidised Rome’s urban migrants who played a crucial role, both in politics and the economy. This made them dependent on state benefits, thereby diluting core Roman values of hard work and self-reliance. In the long run, the financial burden became crippling, but the emperors couldn’t do much: food riots would have toppled them.
The welfare trap is such that the promiser’s credibility must be trusted by the promisee. The fact that guarantees come from Narendra Modi, a force of nature in the heartland—with the winning number of Lok Sabha seats—beat the Congress pledges. People believe him because last-mile delivery, where the money actually reaches people’s pockets, is successful. Farmers get the promised cash in their accounts.
Housewives are provided free LPG cylinders. BPL families receive the full amount for constructing pucca homes. MSMEs get the promised credit. Roads are being built. So on and so forth. The likely slogan for 2024 could be “Modi’s Guarantee”. This is not to say Congress governments did nothing. Manmohan Singh’s liberalisation programme put India on the global economic map. Its annual growth rate for 2004-21, according to World Bank data for 2004-14, averaged about 7.5-8 percent a year, under the Congress.
Demonetisation hurt growth in 2016, and Covid-19 shrunk it by 7.3 percent in 2020-21. But in 2021, the economy grew around 8.9 percent. The Congress had finessed subsidy and reservation: there was even a Haj subsidy. While in the West, affirmative action for jobs and education is based on race, the Indian equivalent is caste. In some states, quotas exceed 80 percent. Regional castes have become power blocs in politics using reservation demands.
Of all the colonial hangovers nationalists forget to mention, or know about, is Reservation. The Indian Councils Act, 1909, enacted by the British was the first step. At the Round Table Conference of June 1932, Ramsay Macdonald, the British prime minister, mooted the Communal Award. It assured separate representation for Muslims, Sikhs, Indian Christians and Anglo-Indians. Reserved constituencies were formed, although SC, STs could vote in other constituencies. This enraged Mahatma Gandhi, who wanted a single Hindu electorate, with seats reserved for Dalits. Was Gandhi the true Hindu icon, whose image was diluted by Nehruvian socialism? That’s a debate for another day.
Ravi Shankar
ravi@newindianexpress.com