Aficionados of Harley Davidson recognise the big bike from its distinct ‘potato, potato, potato’ rumble caused by the traditional engine configuration, a V-twin set at 45 degrees angle between the cylinders, a single crankshaft pin that holds the two pistons firing alternately. The ‘pop, pop, pause’ rhythm, as makers Harley Davidson describe it, could well define the approach of US President Donald J Trump.
Trump’s articulation of what is often referred to as a strategic relationship rides a distinctly bipolar, rant and rave beat. ‘India has been very bad but I like Modi’. There is pop sociology, pop economics, a reasonable pause and pop psychology, peppered with tirades on trade deficit, punctuated by his go-to phrases ‘tremendous’ and ‘very bad’.
On Monday Trump is set to make an appearance at an event in Ahmedabad. Namaste Trump is a sequel or should we say ‘Season 2’ of September sonata ‘Howdy Modi’ with an estimated one lakh plus crowd in the audience. Trump, in typical hyperbole, has claimed and is expecting seven million to welcome him. What can India expect out of the trip?
The cynical view is that the trip is designed to enable Trump to harness votes of the Indian diaspora back home to get re-elected. Frankly, the Ahmedabad event is a cameo, an item song in the Trump II script. He has the wind with him. There is the state of the economy and then there is the State of the Opposition – the line-up Democrats, the Presidential hopefuls, seem all set to get the Republican President re-elected. Regardless of the cynicism, the need for engagement, between the oldest democracy and the largest democracy, is undeniable.
On the face of it, two decades after the Jaswant-Talbot tango and a decade after the nuclear deal, India is miles from being a US ally in the strict sense of the phrase. That said, the Indo-US relationship has sustained and accelerated defence cooperation and purchases – the release of strategic weaponry for sale to India, whether drones or the integrated air and missile systems, are milestones. Equally the commercial side of the relationship has floundered, principally over trade.
Each country has a long list of holy cows – for instance, both for India and US, the dairy industry. The US is annoyed about e-commerce rules and has raged about duties on medical devices and, of course, the tariff on Harley Davidson bikes. India is agitated about the withdrawal of general system of preferences for India and the spectre of Super 301 interrogation of non-tariff barriers and visa conditionalities. Worse, attempts to repair are stranded and much of the dialogue is lost in transmission and translation on what constitutes national interest and what can be defined as protectionism.
President Trump has cleverly taken the ‘big trade deal’ off the table. This pause affords both sides to work to leverage the personal chemistry of the leadership for institutionalising a win-win template. It is an opportunity for an ‘informed’ conversation about issues– for instance the trade deficit itself is just $25 billion, the withdrawal of GSP reeks of pique. The US, in its stance on H1-B visas, has frequently interpreted necessity as a virtue – the visas are being issued because the US economy needs the services of these techies and enable growth and job creation in the US.
Fact is, the United States is not the only town in the game — tech talent is headed north to Canada, as yet an untold story in terms of potential. Top CEOs of tech companies are scouring Canada — and not just because of visa issues – which is now emerging as the incubation centre for the next wave, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence and cleantech. As a member of CUSMA (rechristened NAFTA), it affords access not just to North America which accounts for over 35 per cent of global consumption. And Canada is the only G7 country with free trade deals with all G7 nations. The width of the access and the ease in processes will weigh in future calls corporates must make.
The Trump visit could form the foundation for an ‘educated engagement’ on critical issues of trade and investment and other compelling options. The focus of the US administration is on stimulating trade and the imperative for India is to access investible surplus and market access for its services and goods.
The defining facet of the US President is what device makers call WYSIWYG, what you see is what you get. The in-your-face style of diplomacy is in stark contrast to conventional norms, precedence and predecessors. There is no mistaking that Trump has a penchant for tough talk ahead of talks – sanctions on Korea, democracy activism in Hong Kong and bluster about US mediation in Kashmir.
The weaponisation of words and the term national interest is a common theme. That though does not preclude outcomes. For Trump, the personal is political and the personal overwhelms public policy and the phased deal with China shows that trade tantrums are often the tactic and the strategy.A hundred years back, Woodrow Wilson enunciated the construct of peace without victory. It is possible to conceive greater trade and growth without triumphalism.
( Shankkar Aiyar is the author of Aadhaar: A Biometric, History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India. He can be contacted at shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com )