History tells us that outcomes of epic battles are defined and determined by scale and momentum. The 2024 election is a contest between the BJP led by the omnipresent Narendra Modi, and a fragmented, oftentimes politically dysfunctional opposition. There is no ruling out surprises or the possibility of miracles in democracies. There is the David vs Goliath situation where the underdog, armed with slings and stones, overcome a stronger opponent. The Congress party will need more than a miracle to sustain its relevance.
The Congress is battling for mind space in this make-or-break contest. The Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra has carved a frame of argument for Rahul Gandhi and the party. It has identified grievances and the aggrieved, and is competing with the BJP in a Churchillian fashion on social media and on the ground. This week, the party found a raw nerve in the political economy and announced a new deal for the youth—30 lakh government jobs, Rs 1-lakh apprentice scheme for graduates and diploma holders, end to paper leaks and social security for gig workers. The idea is up for debate. The challenge for the Congress is to establish its credibility. In 2019, it announced reservation of a third of government jobs for women, but the idea did not find ready acceptance in Congress-ruled states. Ironically, it found place in the BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
In the arena of politics, victors are distinguished from the vanquished by the footprint of ideas illuminated by icons. Congress’s reign was defined by Jawaharlal Nehru, who presented the idea of an India larger than its geographic and economic imprint, Indira Gandhi, who built her equity on nationalism and welfare, and Rajiv Gandhi’s vision of a technologically modern India. In less than a decade, Modi conquered public imagination and straddled the spectrum. Brand Modi represents the idea of India as a rising power, the concept of muscular nationalism, the amplification of pro-poor welfare and the adoption of technology in governance. Ergo, the Congress must carve a new space.
Traditionally, Congress has crafted responses to represent all things to all people. Indira Gandhi used the Left to sustain power. Rajiv Gandhi courted cultural and ideological ambivalence illustrated by the Shah Bano and Shilanyas episodes. Call it realpolitik. In contrast, the Congress in the past decade is seen as socio-politically disconnected. It has ceded ground on economic reforms despite being the party which unveiled liberalisation.
Political affiliation is propelled by postures and trade-offs which bolster alliances. In 2004, Sonia Gandhi walked across to wish and befriend her neighbour Ram Vilas Paswan and, later, a jamboree of parties who had stood against the Congress to form the UPA. In 2024, it has faced ignominy with one of the founders of the INDIA bloc defecting, potential allies such as TDP switching sides and TMC refusing to play ball.
Compare this with the BJP. To borrow a phrase from personal finance, the Modi-led BJP approaches politics as a systematic investment plan. Every move is aimed towards improving returns. It has appeased and assuaged segments and communities with national awards. Deploying the concept of impermanence as the constant in politics, it wooed back Nitish Kumar, is inducting the TDP, and has split the Shiv Sena and the NCP. You could say the migrants sought capital protection.
Critical to the context is the dysfunction at the core of the party and its organisation. In the past, the exit of Congressmen was driven by ambitions to launch their own party. That is no longer the cause. In the past decade, Congress leaders—much like those who migrated to Hannibal’s ranks during his campaign against Rome—have defected to be on the winning side. This week saw even those who have never been elected by popular vote queuing up to join the BJP.
In any contest for market share, footprint is consequential. The grand old Indian National Congress is increasingly less ‘national’ and has been pushed into regional corners. In the past decade, its combined tally in two Lok Sabhas is under 100. Indeed, the BJP is in power on its own or with allies in 18 states accounting for 290 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress, in comparison, is in power in states with just over 45 seats.
There is much lather about the opposition coming together. The math of past elections illuminates the fallibility of this calculus. In 2014, the BJP won 136 Lok Sabha seats with over 50 percent of the votes. In 2019, the BJP won 74 percent of the seats—that is 224—with a vote share of over 50 per cent. The BJP and Congress fought one-on-one in around 200 seats, and the BJP won over 91 percent of the seats. The debate in the public square is whether Modi in 2024 will better Modi in 2019.
In 2014, shortly after the BJP bagged a majority in the Lok Sabha, Congressman Sanjay Nirupam, who had lost from North Mumbai, quipped, “Even Modi would have lost had he contested on a Congress ticket.” It was an apt summation of the state of the Congress party and the magnitude of the defeat. The prospects of the Congress, it would seem—both in terms of early opinion polls and grassroots responses—have not improved and Nirupam’s sentiment continues to hold sway. The grand old party faces a do-or-die battle in the next few weeks.
Shankkar aiyar
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)