Bihar! It evokes images of deprivation, a people brimming with aspiration struggling en masse, the persistence of penury perpetuated by a politics that has left its people stranded in a dystopia defined by the divisive arithmetic of castes. It is the state where the long march of promise has been diverted into a wasteland of politics.
Why Bihar matters is because it is home to the youngest population with a median age under 25. It matters because it punches way below its young demography on the GDP scale. Bihar is home to over 130 million, roughly a tenth of India’s population. It contributes just around 3.2 percent or Rs 10.97 lakh crore (at current prices) of India’s Rs 331-lakh-crore economy. So how poor is Bihar? The distance between the top state, the national average and Bihar affords a graphic picture.
The state’s gap in per capita annual income from the top-ranked Karnataka at Rs 3.80 lakh, India’s national average at Rs 2.35 lakh is revealing. Bihar’s per capita income, at Rs 66,828, is less than a sixth of Karnataka’s and a fourth of the national average. Within Bihar, the districts of Sheohar, Madhubani and Araria are worse off with per capita income one-third of the state average.
Where does Bihar stand on the timeline of progress? Today, the state’s per capita income is where India’s was in 2012-13. Friends from the state now living elsewhere often describe it, half in jest, as the Republic of Bihar. With a population of over 131 million, the Republic of Bihar would rank as the 11th largest alongside Mexico, which boasts of a GDP of $1.8 trillion. But at roughly $125 billion, the ‘Republic’ would feature in the sixties on GDP ranking, somewhere alongside Ecuador and Puerto Rico.
The state of governance in the state merits attention. As per the Bihar State Caste Survey, a mere 15 percent have finished class 10 and only 6 percent are graduates. One factor is visible in parliamentary records on access to schools. A third of Bihar’s villages lack primary schools, 40 percent lack upper primary schools, only 8.5 percent have secondary schools, and only one in five have higher secondary schools. Bihar is ranked 28th among states on development by the Niti Aayog, and has received Rs 255 crore in foreign direct investment in five years.
The Economic Survey of Bihar states that just 6.7 percent of workers are employed with the government or public sector units. You would think a state with such a young population could use funds for skilling. In July 2024, the Union government informed parliament that it had allocated Rs 128.66 crore to Bihar for Kaushal Vikas Yojana under the Skill India Mission. Of this, only Rs 36.82 crore was released and a mere Rs 5.96 crore was used! Of the 7.59 lakh who received training, only 1.27 lakh got placements.
The irony is that Bihar’s afflictions have survived every colour of government. It has been Congress-mukt since 1989 and ‘Jungle raj’-mukt since 2005. Nitish Kumar has been at the helm for nearly two decades. Yet Bihar continues to defy its potential. The upcoming electoral contest between the NDA and the opposition alliance led by RJD is, effectively, a competition of schemes.
This week the Election Commission declared the schedule of polls. It is that season when amid the heat and dust, din and decibels of rhetoric, parties open their treasure trove of promises. Election manifestos of parties are often an eloquent testimony of the state of the political economy.
Nitish Kumar unveiled three major promises. One crore new jobs in the next five years, a cash grant of Rs 10,000 to over a crore women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana with the prospect of further transfers, and Rs 1,000 to unemployed graduates for two years under a self-help allowance scheme. Then there is also 125 units of free electricity promised for 1.6 crore families.
The RJD-led Mahaghatbandan is not to be left behind. Tejashwi Yadav has promised Rs 2,500 for women, 200 units of free electricity, and subsidised gas cylinders. These are now par for the course in elections. However, Tejashwi upped the ante by promising to enact a law to ensure a government job for each and every household in the state. The promise is to pass such a law within 20 days of swearing in and providing the jobs in 20 months!
The promises are a blend of reality and fantasy. In its 2025-26 budget, the Bihar government placed total expenditure at Rs 2.94 lakh crore. Its dependence on central funding is manifest in the transfer of Rs 1.5 lakh crore as devolution and under different heads from the Union government.
Now, it is estimated that Bihar has around 2.76 crore households. The math of job creation versus the funding—assuming a minimum wage of Rs 20,000 and at least 1.5 crore jobs—is mindboggling, to say the least. The high level of unemployment, illustrated by 8 lakh applicants for 15,000 home guard posts, is a reality. It is just as worrying as the promises being made by political parties, which border on fantasy.
Bihar is verily a live laboratory of political paradoxes. The state matters because it symbolises the faultlines that shackle India’s rise. The quality of politics in the state matters because the price of inaction paid by the nation will be far greater than the costs the parties face.
Read all columns by Shankkar Aiyar
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar:
A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit
Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)
