While an ambush is a general's tactic, surprises are a statesman's hallmark. BJP's magnificent mascot, Narendra Modi, inevitably wins the war of perception by not being predictable but using unconventional manoeuvres on the political battlefield. He is adored and abhorred for keeping his cards close to his 56" chest and winning the grand slam using covert strategies.
Last week, while his opponents were at the INDIA meet in Mumbai, Modi threw a curveball. He directed his Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Prahlad Joshi, to announce on X, a special five day session of Parliament after G 20 is over. Never before have dates for a session been announced on social media, that too, without reference to any prior Cabinet meeting. Joshi played coy about its purpose, which perhaps only the PM and some trusted officials who worked on the legislative agenda knew.
What can it be? Media moguls, self-proclaimed political insiders and garrulous gossips were at sea. However, ignorance didn't prevent them from predicting the session's outcomes. All grandiose BJP spokespersons were conspicuous by their absence on news channels.
Speculations abounded on the dissolution of all state assemblies and the Lok Sabha to facilitate simultaneous elections, women's reservation in all legislatures, implementing a Uniform Civil Code, fixing the minimum income and discussing the success of the G20 summit. But these don't need an out of season session. A wild theory that the Constitution could be drastically amended to dilute India's parliamentary form of government and introduce a presidential system was floated. This columnist, too, has decided to participate in the guess-fest for fun.
Women's Reservation. It could perhaps be the most plausible reason for calling the special session. Wooing women is the primary objective of all parties. Data reveals that Modi won over 300 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 because over 60 per cent of female votes turned saffron. He has induced women to identify with his government since he assumed power in 2014. His government launched various welfare schemes for them. The Ujwala scheme offered women over 100 million LPG cylinders at highly subsidised rates.
Last week, he reduced the prices of LPG cylinders by Rs 200— the Centre had previously rejected demands for a reduction in fuel prices, saying the government needs funds for infrastructure projects. But just six months before the elections, it offered this Raksha Bandhan gift to women. Maybe the BJP is rattled by the Congress win in Karnataka, which offered seductive sops to women. Ashok Gehlot, the Rajasthan Chief Minister, announced giving cylinders for Rs 500 to each household. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan, who faces elections later this year, followed Gehlot's example by reducing LPG price to Rs 450. Almost every state subsidises the cost of food grain and gives direct cash transfers to women's bank accounts to meet kitchen expenses.
The political practice, which Modi dubbed as revdi culture, has become the most powerful gimmick to expand shares of female votes. But current political and administrative actions aren't confined to just distributing money. The BJP has realised that it can retain power only if it politically empowers women by giving them more national and federal legislative representation. Modi created history by appointing women as External Affairs, Defence and Finance ministers. He also chose a tribal woman to be India's President. Yet the proportion of women members in Assemblies, Parliament and party forums is dismal. Few women head the state unit of any party.
Women constitute less than 10 per cent of the total members of all Assemblies and Parliament. In the 29-member Union Cabinet, only two are of the fairer sex. The BJP has just one female member in its omnipotent Parliamentary Board. It doesn't have a single woman CM. Party insiders feel that Modi could introduce a bill ensuring 30 per cent reservation for women in national and state legislatures using a Constitutional amendment. If actually introduced, the Bill would kill two birds with one stone: huge applause for the prime minister and ideologically divide INDIA.
Most of its constituents, such as JDU, RLD and SP, oppose women's reservation, unlike the Congress. The BJP wants to expose the new Band Aid Opposition's latent schisms during the session. What better platform other than the Lok Sabha can Modi get to expose a divided Opposition on a politically correct issue? Constitutionally, the law, even if passed by both houses of the Parliament, can't come into effect unless 50 per cent of the states also adopt the resolution. But Modi feels optics matter more than operation.
One Nation, One Election: Media mavericks and political pundits assert that the session was called to facilitate simultaneous state and general elections. The ongoing one election debate became serious during the first NDA government. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, then Vice President, openly advocated the concept since governments waste huge amounts of time and expense on conducting polls.
Every six months, an election is held in one state or the other and the code of conduct is imposed. But none of the political parties was willing to abdicate power midway. For example, if elections for all states and the Lok Sabha are held simultaneously, most BJP-run states like UP, Assam, Tripura, Haryana, and Maharashtra would have to go for midterm polls.
Modi doesn't need a constitutional amendment to hold elections. He can rattle the Opposition by advising the 18 chief ministers of states governed by the BJP and its allies to dissolve their Assemblies and go for vote-gathering along with the Lok Sabha. But the session isn't the place for making such decisions. It can, however, be used to amplify the virtues of the Modi government and his party, which cheers the Nation First Idea. With the appointment of a high-powered panel under former President Ram Nath Kovind, the prospect of any legislative surprise can't be ruled out.
Modi has set another precedent by appointing a former President to head a political body. But Kovind's choice fits his agenda. Once the terms of reference and members' names are announced, it will be clear whether the exercise is aimed at getting a radically rewritten Constitution.
Uniform Civil Code: Since polarisation has traditionally helped the BJP, it may introduce legislation to implement the UCC. Although various judicial verdicts have diluted special privileges of the minorities, the UCC will elicit an emotional response Modi expects the Opposition to oppose and provide him with a handle to blame them for appeasement politics.
What will really happen in Parliament for five days, only Modi knows. But once again, he has plunged politics into iffy waters. From demonetisation to abolishing Article 370, Modi has won the image battle. Now, he has to counter NDA's ten-year-old incumbency factor with an entirely new political weapon to disarm and paralyse an Opposition moving slowly towards unity. The horoscope of Indian politics hides the mystery of victory. But the only shining star is Modi, the headmaster of master strokes.
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prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com
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