CHENNAI: Just as Michael Bracewell punched Rishad Hossain at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Monday night, it sealed the fate of the two semifinalists from Group A in the ongoing ICC Champions Trophy. New Zealand knocked out Bangladesh with a five-wicket win, in the process confirming India's qualification and Pakistan's elimination from the tournament.
While New Zealand's win against Bangladesh on Monday came as the final nail in the coffin for tournament hosts', the actual reason for their downfall lies within. At a time when teams are trying to get ahead of the curve in how the ODI format is played, Pakistan seem to be stuck in the past decade. The top three taking time to build the innings, batting for 35 overs before giving a final push in the last 15 is a template several teams, including India, followed with a lot of success in the 2010s.
The question of what happens when your top-order fails in a do-or-die match came to haunt Pakistan— as it did for India in the 2019 ODI WC — and as a result, slowly but steadily the approach, especially in the first 15 overs began to change. At least for most teams, but not Pakistan. Barring Saim Ayub and Fakhar Zaman — one got injured in January and the other during the first game against New Zealand — none of the top three Pakistan batters have a strike rate over 90 since 2024. In this period, Babar Azam's SR is 76.93, Abdullah Shafique operates at 71.01 and Kamran Ghulam 86.79.
The strike rate is just the foreword of a book that could be written on the issues with Pakistan cricket. If one breaks it down, beneath it is the number of dot balls Pakistan play in the 50-over format. Since the beginning of this year, Pakistan has played approximately 145 dot balls per innings on average across five matches. In this Champions Trophy alone, they played 161 dot balls against New Zealand in Pakistan and 147 against India in Dubai. Among the teams that are taking part in the Champions Trophy, Bangladesh and Afghanistan have worse dot-ball record but they have played fewer games.
Now, dot ball percentage did not use to be a big issue for elite teams and batters as they compensate with boundaries. Pakistan, however, haven't been able to do that either. In 2025, their boundary percentage of 46.96 is only better than Bangladesh's 40.08. In comparison, India have played approximately 125 dot balls per innings on average while having the best boundary percentage of 55.1. Unless a team is chasing a sub-par target, the combination of high dot balls and lower boundary percentage could prove to be fatal as it has been for Pakistan.
Even during the match against India — where the previous match against the Kiwis was a clear indication of the need for a good powerplay with the bat — Pakistan played 61 dot balls in the first 15 overs. One could argue that India are a far superior bowling attack on paper, but Harshit Rana has just come into the set up, Mohammed Shami wasn't running in at full tilt and yet Mohammad Rizwan and company went into a shell after losing two wickets in the first 15 overs. What followed was yet another middle-order muddle that has continued since the 2023 ODI WC. "... in our meeting we had discussed that on this pitch around 270 – 280 runs would be enough to score. Because the outfield was slow, the pitch was slow. So, the ball wasn't going in the gaps. If we would have scored 280 maybe the results would be different today. But me and Saud tried to build a partnership and took a lot of time. But after that the shot selection was poor and that’s where they got a chance to take our wickets. After that our middle order maybe couldn’t take the pressure and we couldn’t manage.," skipper Rizwan tried to explain on Sunday.
"What I believe in is that the Indian team put in more effort than us today. Maybe they were more brave than us. And that's why they got this result. And we made mistakes. Maybe we didn't show bravery at one place. And we needed energy in our fielding. So maybe we lacked that energy. Because of which we made mistakes. And maybe we lacked those things," he added.
For any other team, on any other day, it could be seen as a case of the opponent being a better team — which they are — but with Pakistan there is a clear pattern. And this early exit from the Champions Trophy should come as a wake-up call for hosts. For them to compete and dominate among the top teams in the world, especially before the ODI WC in 2027, Pakistan will have to take a hard look in the mirror and reboot the way they operate in the 50-over format.
