GUWAHATI: The much-talked-about undercurrent in Assam turned out to be a myth, as the BJP-led NDA nullified anti-incumbency to score a hat-trick in power.
Six Opposition parties, led by the Congress, had come together to put up a united fight, but they were no match for the NDA.
The BJP had planned and worked on the elections for five years. In stark contrast, a beleaguered Congress, weakened by the defection of several of its leaders, could finalise the Opposition front just weeks before the elections.
The BJP contested the polls on the planks of a development agenda and identity politics, warning voters that its defeat would mean the resumption of political and land aggressions by the alleged illegal “Miyas” (Bengali-speaking Muslims).
The BJP had managed to polarise the majority Hindu voters by going hard at the Bengali Muslims.
For the first time, a government in the state could muster the courage to go all out against encroachment, evicting thousands of people, largely Miyas. Around 1.51 lakh bighas of government and “Satra” (Vaishnavite monastery) lands, encroached upon by the “infiltrators,” were reclaimed.
Sarma’s politics in the past five years revolved around the Miyas, as he was not bothered about the votes of Muslims who account for around 33% of the state’s population, according to the 2011 Census.
“The Miyas cannot live in peace as long as I remain the Chief Minister. Harassing suspected Miya immigrants is my job,” he had stated polemically.
During the election campaign, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had stated that seven districts, such as Dhubri, Barpeta, Darrang, Morigaon, Bongaigaon, Nagaon and Goalpara, turned into an infiltrator-majority.
He squarely blamed the Congress for this, alleging that it had “normalised” the infiltration of Bangladeshis when it was in power. He promised that the infiltrators, who had already been identified, would be driven out if the BJP retained power.
Such aggressive postures helped the party consolidate the Hindu votes in its favour. Indigenous communities welcomed the eviction drives amid concerns over existential threats. Infiltration is often blamed for the alarming shifts in Assam’s demography.
The BJP reaped dividends of its various welfare schemes, particularly “Orunodoi”. Under it, women from economically disadvantaged families are provided with monthly financial assistance of Rs 1,250. An estimated 40 lakh of the state’s 2.5 crore voters are the beneficiaries of this scheme.
The BJP had also won the hearts of voters through good governance, particularly by ensuring clean recruitments in government departments over the past 10 years.
The Congress’s 15-year rule (2001-16) was marked by corruption charges in recruitments. During former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s last term (2011-16), a cash-for-jobs scam in the Assam Public Service Commission had rocked the state.
Sarma had cautioned voters in the lead-up to the polls that they would have to buy government jobs again if the Congress returned to power.
Assam witnessed unprecedented infrastructure development under the BJP-led government. Many major roads, bridges, medical and engineering colleges and other projects were built across the state, with no region being discriminated against.
The BJP also gained from the 2023 delimitation exercise, which increased the number of Hindu seats. Muslims were the virtual kingmakers in around 33 constituencies, where only the Congress and the Maulana Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front were influential. Post-delimitation, the number of Muslim-dominated seats went down to around 23. The constituencies elsewhere also underwent tweaks in terms of demography as well as population.
The votes of tea workers (Tea Tribes) matter in Upper, Northern, Central and Southern Assam. The BJP was lenient with its outreach to the community.
The BJP-led government had taken up a series of welfare measures, focusing on land rights, wage hikes, and social inclusion of the tea workers.
For the first time in the 200-year history of Assam tea, the NDA ensured land ownership rights to the community, established model schools in tea garden areas, offered direct financial assistance, etc.
The Opposition struggled with a credibility gap despite the formation of a broad-based alliance.
The Congress had attempted to whip up an anti-BJP sentiment among voters by playing on the twin issues of corruption against Sarma and music icon Zubeen Garg’s mysterious death in Singapore last year.
The Congress had promised justice for Garg within 100 days of coming to power and build 'New Bor-Asom' (new greater/unified Assam). However, these narratives found few takers.
A series of defections of leaders had reduced the Congress to a moribund party. Jorhat MP Gaurav Gogoi is the only leader left in the party with a statewide reach. However, he is nowhere near Sarma in terms of popularity. People had tried and tested the Congress until rejecting it in 2016.
The Congress has not won a single election in Assam ever since then.
Jayanta Krishna Sarmah, who teaches political science at Gauhati University, said the NDA’s victory suggests a deeper structural shift in Assam's political landscape.
Talking about beneficiary economy and gendered welfare, he said the Orunodoi scheme evolved from a social security measure into a potent electoral tool.
"Also, the BJP’s campaign remained anchored in the protection of ‘Khilonjia’ (indigenous) interests. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s aggressive stance on illegal immigration and demographic change resonated strongly in the Brahmaputra Valley,” he said.
Agreed, another observer.
“The various welfare schemes, development initiatives, coupled with the actions taken against infiltration and encroachment, kept the BJP in good standing in the polls,” Guwahati-based senior journalist Anup Sarmah said.
