After high-decibel internal bickering caused embarrassment to the party and threatened to undo the gains made by the Siddaramaiah government, an uneasy silence prevails in the ruling Congress camp. Many wonder if the party’s top brass has managed to broker peace, or whether it is a lull before the storm, and the tussle for power will continue as the government approaches its mid-way mark in November this year.
No one – except the party high command, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar – knows about a power-sharing agreement, if any, reached before the formation of the government in 2023.
A lack of clarity on the much-talked-about agreement, discontent among a section of legislators over funds for development works, and the aspirations of many senior legislators to become ministers seem to be among the major reasons for the crisis that manifests episodically, pushing the top leadership into a firefighting mode.
While the exercise to gauge the mood among the party legislators, assess their contribution to implementing the government’s flagship guarantee schemes, and provide a platform to express their aspirations is underway, Shivakumar took the initiative to cool down the political temperatures.
His remark – “ What option do I have? I have to stand by him (Siddaramaiah) and support him. I do not have any objection to it” – yet again made it clear that he is not someone who will rock the boat for selfish political gains, but rather wait for his turn. Having weathered the storm at the worst of the crisis when he was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), he perhaps thinks that the worst is behind him. Also, at this stage, any claim for leadership without the wholehearted consent of the high command could precipitate a crisis for the party, allowing the opposition to exploit the situation.
Shivakumar, a staunch party loyalist who played an instrumental role in turning around the party’s fortunes in the 2023 assembly polls, never looked beyond Congress and, as the party’s state president, often talks of ensuring the party’s return to power after the 2028 elections. That may be a long shot. Over two-and-a-half years is a long time in politics as political equations can completely change in just a few months or even weeks.
For now, Shivakumar’s remarks on having no options were quickly followed by Siddaramaiah’s assertion that he would continue to be the CM for the full tenure of five years, suggesting there may not be any major change in the existing arrangement. At best, there may be a rejig in the government to address the discontent among senior leaders by accommodating them in the cabinet towards the end of the year.
However, AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge indicated that all options are open. “It is in the hands of the high command. Nobody here can say what is going on in the high command. This is left to the high command, and the high command has the power to take further action. But unnecessarily, one should not create problems,” Kharge said in Bengaluru, responding to a question on some Congress leaders talking about leadership change in October.
Kharge’s remarks drew sharp criticism from the BJP, which sought to remind him that as the party president, he is the high command. Perhaps what Kharge meant by “high command” was the collective leadership that consists of, among others, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and himself.
As things appear now, it is not an easy task for the high command to decide on the leadership issue in Karnataka, due to several factors. The considerable support that Siddaramaiah enjoys among OBCs and the minority community, and the forthcoming elections in other states, including Bihar, complicates matters for the high command.
At a time when Rahul Gandhi often raises the OBC issue to target Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Grand Old Party would be wary of antagonising Siddaramaiah, who has projected himself as the champion of the backward classes. Under Siddaramaiah’s leadership, an Advisory Council to the All India Congress Committee (AICC) OBC Department has been constituted by the AICC to discuss key issues and initiatives for the welfare of the OBC community. The first meeting of the committee will be held in Bengaluru on July 15.
Replacing a CM from OBC with that of a dominant Vokkaliga community leader would provide a potent political weapon to the BJP. The party will also be cautious that the storm that rages over the leadership issue in Karnataka could consume everything, and the party could end up paying a heavy price beyond Karnataka. Be it in Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh, Congress’s high command often finds it difficult to handle affairs in the states with two powerful leaders from its own party vying for the CM’s post.
In Karnataka, Shivakumar’s unflinching loyalty to the party and the Gandhi family seems to provide enough space for the party to navigate through the crisis by maintaining a balance between the factions. At the moment, the circumstances seem to be favouring Siddaramaiah.
Political equations can shift anytime. Nothing is certain in politics. Time can change anything as everyone waits for an opportunity to make their move.
