The issue over whether or not there would be a change in chief minister in Karnataka has taken a twist. The Congress high command in New Delhi wishes to see an early resolution to the lingering leadership issue. But it may get increasingly difficult for that to happen. In fact, the ingredients for the situation to worsen have already been added to the political broth.
The twist came late on Friday in the form of a party high command-advised breakfast meeting on Saturday morning between Karnataka’s dominant two political gladiators, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister Shivakumar – the former hoping to cling on to the CM’s post, and the latter vying for it. From the aroma of the breakfast meeting wafting out of the closed doors, it looks like the former is likely to have his way, much to the chagrin of the latter.
The party high command seems to have taken a bite of Karnataka politics bigger than it could chew when Congress returned to power in the state in May 2023 with a thumping majority. Blurred by the celebratory mood among party workers that followed then, and hidden from the eyes of voters who voted the party back to power, was said to be a secret agreement – not in black-and-white, but more of a word given and trusted.
That word – said to have been given then to Shivakumar – was that Siddaramaiah would be the chief minister, and that he (Shivakumar) would be elevated to the post after the half-way mark of the five-year term was reached. That happens to be November 2025.
Over the past few months, speculation had kept growing on whether Siddaramaiah would make way – or made to make way – for Shivakumar. There are now two distinct camps evolved within the state Congress. One is supporting the continuation of Siddaramaiah as CM until he completes the full five-year term, the other is screaming for Shivakumar’s elevation to the chief minister’s post. That is party “unity” for you.
The Saturday breakfast meeting may appear like a “truce” between the two, but Siddaramaiah, in the post-meeting presser, said they would abide by whatever the party high command decides. But events that unfolded over the past few days have done one thing – drive a long-lasting chasm within the state Congress, covered by a thin fragile surface of unity as a facade. That is the problematic ingredient added to the broth.
Groups belonging to AHINDA (a Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalit communities, which form the core base of Siddaramaiah’s political clout) and Karnataka State Federation of Backward Class Communities (KSFBCC) have warned the Congress of adverse implications if Siddaramaiah was forced to make way for Shivakumar.
On the other hand, the Karnataka Rajya Vokkaligara Sangha has vowed to vehemently fight if injustice is meted out to Shivakumar, a powerful Vokkaliga leader. Besides, the prominent Vokkaliga seer Nirmalanandanatha Swamiji, the Adichunchanagiri Mutt pontiff is supporting Shivakumar. Protests have already begun in support of their respective leaders.
Politics, especially in India, is a tricky field. The society is extremely divided on multiple religious, caste, sub-caste, cultural and ideological lines. The divisions are invisible on the surface, but run deep. But these divisions benefit political leaders, for whom they act like power engines for their vehicles of ambition on the road to victory, if they are able to emerge as champions of their respective causes.
Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have successfully achieved that in Karnataka. Both played key roles in bringing Congress back to power in the state, based on their respective political clouts. Both are powerful and have their respective support bases – on the basis of which their respective camps have now evolved, and pushed the issue to a complicated level.
That complication is now facing the party high command. The 2023 assembly poll campaign saw binary power centres – Siddaramaiah, an Other Backward Class (OBC) mass leader with the backing of AHINDA, and Shivakumar, a dominant Vokkaliga leader, the party’s trouble-shooter, and money bag not just within Karnataka but even for the party’s fortunes in other states. From this very binary equation that powered Congress to victory was born the problem that faces the party in the state and its high command in Delhi today.
Political leaders are human too. They nurture expectations from the efforts they put into ensuring an electoral victory for their party. So do Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. But Siddaramaiah got the crown; Shivakumar, a word he trusted, ‘gifted’ the post of deputy chief minister, besides the post of Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president from earlier in 2020 based on his potential.
The two leaders sitting down for breakfast together before their one-on-one meeting may appear a positive sign for the state Congress. But the ball still remains in the party high command’s court. It is to be seen how it tackles the issue in the coming days, weeks and months – because it is a question, not of whether Siddaramaiah will be able to complete his five-year term or whether Shivakumar will be given the CM’s chair, but of whether Congress itself will be able to complete its full term before the next assembly polls in 2028, and Karnataka is a rare, prized state for the Congress in the country, crucially after their drubbing in the Bihar assembly polls.