KASARAGOD: After the 2015 local body election, CPM candidate AV Narayanan -- who contested from Iriya (ward no. 6) of Pullur-Periya panchayat -- informed the party that he would get 584 votes and win the ward. He was right almost to the last vote. Narayanan got 583 votes but still lost the ward to Congress's Satheesan V by 19 votes.
That, in a nutshell, is the electoral politics of Pullur-Periya panchayat -- treacherously deceptive.
Pullur-Periya attained notoriety when Youth Congress workers Sarath Lal (24) and Kripesh (19) were hacked to death allegedly by CPM workers on February 17, 2019. For nearly 20 months, the LDF-led government stonewalled a CBI investigation into the double murder case. But on December 1, the Supreme Court upheld the high court order and asked the state government to hand over the case diary to the central agency.
The Congress is hoping the murders and purported resentment against the LDF government for stalling the CBI probe will translate to vote for the UDF. But Pullur-Periya -- in the middle for Kasaragod district -- is mired identity politics as much as party politics. Though the double murder in Kalliyot brought together the Congress leaders to put up a united front, the electorate is still divided and their mind is hard to read.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when Congress's Rajmohan Unnithan sprung a surprise win in Kasaragod, the UDF got only around 400 votes more than the LDF in Pullur-Periya panchayat. That was when the UDF was riding the negative wave against the LDF because of the Kalliyot murder and the Sabarimala issue.
Down to the wire
The panchayat has a red streak but other colours can blend and throw up startling results. In the 17-ward panchayat, the victory margins in at least six wards are less than 100. That's why CPM's AV Narayanan could estimate his vote share in 2015 but could not see his defeat coming in Iriya.
The 2010 election was an even-steven affair with the LDF and the UDF winning in eight wards, each. But the sole BJP member tipped the scale in favour of the UDF.
But in 2015, the UDF was reduced to five members, and the LDF won 11 wards.
In 2015, the LDF won even Kalliyot (ward no. 5) -- a bastion of Congress -- by fielding an independent candidate.
In Koodanam (ward 3) -- another bastion of the Congress -- the LDF's vice-presidential candidate Krishnan P won by seven votes. This time around, the Congress is likely to win Kalliyot, reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates. But Koodanam -- reserved for female candidates -- is tricky. The Congress, the CPM, and the BJP have fielded candidates from the same extended family belonging to the Yadava community.
.Krishnan, who belongs to the Yadava or Maniyani community, is now contesting from Periya town (ward 16), with a sizable Nair population. In 2015, it was represented by CPM's Sharada S Nair, the panchayat president.
The Congress has fielded Ramakrishnan Nair to tap into the presumed Nair vote bank. But the BJP has also fielded a Nair candidate and both the candidates and active members of the Nair Service Society.
"The CPM has always won from Periya town but this time around, it is not a safe seat for the LDF. Our candidate is far ahead," said C K Aravindakshan, Congress leader and the UDF's presidential candidate.
But he is contesting from Challingal (ward no. 14), which was won by the CPM in 2015 by 60 votes.
In 2010, Aravindakshan contested and won from Challingal by just 14 votes. Though he is confident of winning back the seat again, the LDF is leaving no stone unturned to see his back. "Aravindakshan has a tough fight at hand," said T V Karyan, CPM leader and the LDF's presidential candidate.
Karyan is contesting from Thattummal (ward 12), a stronghold of the CPM. He had a rebel candidate but the party's leadership intervened and made the rebel withdraw his nomination. The LDF enjoys a decisive majority in seven of the 17 wards in the panchayat, said Karyan, a party strategist. Ayambara (ward 2), Kumbala (ward 7), Haripuram (11), Thatummal (12), Keloth (13), Periya (16), and Periya Bazar (17), he said.
The LDF is giving a tough fight in Iriya (6) and Ambalathara (8), won by the UDF in 2015. "The way the LDF won Kalliyot and Koodanam in 2015, the UDF won Iriya and Ambalathara. Those are our wards and we will win them back this time around," said Karyan.
Aravindakshan said there was a time when the LDF could claim some wards as its bastions but those days were gone. The UDF said it has played the caste and religion cards correctly this time. The Congress gave the Ambalathara ward to the IUML eyeing the Muslim votes in the ward. Of the around 1,500 voters, 476 are Muslim votes.
Usually, the IUML contests only from Kuniya (ward 1), where it wins hands down.
Apart from Kuniya, the UDF has an upper hand in Thannithode (ward 4), Kalliyot (5), and Kayakkulam (15).
"Unlike 2015, this time around we have fielded good candidates who can swing votes in favour of the UDF," said Aravindakshan. He said Krishnakumar C, who wrested Ambalathara ward from the CPM in 2015, is contesting in Kumbala ward (ward 7).
Kumbala is considered a CPM pocket and in 2015, the LDF won the ward by 126 votes.
But in 2010, when Krishnakumar contested in Kumbala, he lost by just 26 votes. He is facing LDF's A V Kunhambu, who has equally endeared people with his social interventions and helping people get medical attention.
Dark horse
But the dark horse in the panchayat is the BJP. Vishnumangalam (ward 10) is the only ward where it wins. In other wards, it does not have votes to win but enough to ensure a party's defeat.
In 2010, it had entered into a secret pre-poll alliance with the UDF. But this time around, it has fielded RSS volunteers to gauge its strength in the panchayat ahead of the 2021 Assembly election.
CAPTION:
Veteran Congress leader on Friday.