THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In a clear indication that Kerala’s bipolar political landscape is giving way to a tripolar scenario, the BJP on Tuesday won its first-ever Lok Sabha seat from the state, with Suresh Gopi’s emphatic victory in Thrissur.
Riding on an anti-incumbency wave against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left government in the state and the Narendra Modi-led NDA government at the Centre, the UDF won 18 seats, leaving the Left with a humiliating single-seat score.
The BJP was able to win Thrissur and finished a close second in Thiruvananthapuram. It even managed a decent third place in Attingal, besides performing well in Alappuzha and Pathanamthitta constituencies.
An increase in BJP’s vote share — roughly by 4% — in the state is a clear indication of the things to come. Suresh Gopi’s victory further reinforces the on-ground political reality that the saffron party is no longer anathema to Kerala voters.
Meanwhile, the poll outcome has come as a major relief for the Congress-led UDF which has been reeling under persistent infighting, leadership vacuum and lack of political vigour and organisational strength. The UDF owes its victory, to a major extent, to Pinarayi himself, as negative votes against the Left played a crucial role in the final verdict than its own strategies.
Though the UDF achieved a commendable victory, K Muraleedharan’s humiliating third-place show in the party’s sitting seat has come as a shocker and is undoubtedly a setback for the Congress. Noticeably, even in the face of victory, the party leadership presented a fractured front. Unless and until the Congress leadership sorts out its issues within, it wouldn’t exactly be a bright scenario for the UDF in the 2026 assembly polls.
As for the LDF, the writing on the wall can no longer be ignored. It’s going to get real tough for the CPM, unless it mend its ways.
‘LDF’s conventional vote base no longer a sure bet’
Evidently, the Muslim appeasement card played by the Left with its over-emphasis on the Citizenship (Amendment) Act didn’t bear fruit, but also seems to have backfired, as neither the minority nor the majority chose to stand with the Left. The result shows that the minorities view the Congress as an alternative to the BJP at the Centre.
“As opposed to the usual theory that the BJP eats into the UDF’s vote share, this time around, it has cut into the Left vote base too. Unlike in the past, the LDF’s traditional vote base is no longer a sure bet. A change in the bipolar scenario shows that a section of Left sympathisers has voted for the UDF and the BJP too, due to various factors,” observed political observer J Prabhash.
Noticeably, the humiliating defeat comes in the wake of the Left having won a second assembly term in office. A slew of political and administrative lapses like delay in pension disbursal, price hike, shortage of essential supplies, in addition to corruption charges against the CM and his family, etc have all impacted the poll outcome.
The verdict shows that the Left can no longer claim to have a unshakeable vote base in Kerala. The government has shed its innate Leftist characteristics -- be it about disbursal of pensions or arresting price hike. The poll outcome is also a pointer to the seething resentment within the Left. Whether it’s about Muslim appeasement or the arrogant politics indulged in by a section of its leaders, the masses are not happy.
The fact that Suresh Gopi won not just Hindu votes, but also succeeded in making inroads into the Christian community is nothing but a shrill wake-up call to the top brass of LDF.