THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Two recent elections stood out distinctively in Kerala’s political history for the dynamic voting patterns that deviated from the norm. They were ‘wave’ elections.
After the 1980s, when the UDF and LDF were formed, in most Lok Sabha elections, the UDF always had an edge, except in 2004. In the case of assembly elections, the pendulum system was a given. Shocking landslides were a rarity.
However, the April 2019 parliament election and the 2021 state assembly election, Kerala witnessed back-to-back stunners.
The 2019 general elections came after the flood of the century in 2018. While some pinned the blame on the then LDF government, others lauded it for the way it managed the crisis.
Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from Wayanad, along with the impression created about the Congress returning to power at the Centre, tilted the balance in UDF’s favour.
Then, of course, the then LDF government’s stand on the Supreme Court verdict on women’s entry into the Sabarimala temple led to polarisation of the Hindu votes against the Left. For the first time after the Nilakkal protest in 1982, the Sangh Parivar, which led a strong protest against the state government’s haste in implementing the SC verdict, saw a golden opportunity. But its hopes were dashed.
The possibility of a Congress comeback at the Centre drove Muslim and Christian votes in favour of the UDF. Upsetting the BJP’s calculations, a large chunk of Hindu votes also swayed in its favour, helping it win 19 of the 20 parliament seats. An unprecedented sweep in Kerala.
After two years, a belligerent UDF took on the LDF in the assembly election held in May 2021. The LDF appeared to be on the backfoot. The sensational case over gold smuggling via diplomatic channels and the consequent arrest of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s principal secretary M Sivasankar by the ED had left the LDF shaken.
Add to that, other scandals and allegations over mismanagement of the 2018 flood relief and the pandemic. The age-old ‘anti-incumbency factor’ seemed to be on the boil. The UDF eyed an easy walkover.
However, the LDF surprised poll pundits with an impressive comeback in the local self-government elections, held soon after the general election. The UDF and the BJP were dismayed.
The UDF still banked its hopes on the ‘pendulum factor’ in electoral politics of Kerala, where the two mainstream fronts came to power in alternate intervals. That, however, would not be the case. The LDF government’s Covid crisis management, along with the distribution of free ration kits, seemed to retain voter confidence. With the anti-incumbency factor fizzling out, the LDF created history by retaining power for a consecutive second term by any government – except the Congress-CPI government led by C Achutha Menon in 1977. The LDF was reelected with 99 of the total of 140 seats – up by 8 from its 2016 tally.
Family matters
K Muraleedharan: Son of former chief minister K Karunakaran, Muraleedharan is a four-time MP and two-time MLA. The Congress has fielded him in Thrissur, his father’s home turf. He was elected as an MP from Kozhikode in 1989, 1991, 1999, and Vadakara in 2019. He was elected to the state assembly from Vattiyoorkavu in 2011 and 2016.
Rahul Gandhi: Son of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and former Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Rahul is contesting for the second time in Wayanad. In the 2019 general election, he contested from Amethi, his then sitting seat, and Wayanad. He lost to Smriti Irani of the BJP in Amethi, a traditional fief of the Gandhi family, but won in Wayanad with a record margin.
Hibi Eden: Son of the late Congress leader and MP George Eden, Hibi was elected to the Lok Sabha in 2019 while he was representing Ernakulam in the state assembly. He replaced former Union minister K V Thomas, and is now seeking a second term in Parliament from Ernakulam.
Francis George: Francis George, son of Kerala Congress founder K M George, has been elected twice as MP from Idukki. In 2020, he merged his Janadhipathya Kerala Congress, with the P J Joseph faction of the Kerala Congress. He is now seeking a mandate in Kottayam as a candidate of the UDF.
A Vijayaraghavan: A former MP and member of the CPM politburo, Vijayaraghavan is the husband of Higher Education Minister R Bindu. Having previously represented Palakkad in Parliament (1989), he is vying to reclaim the seat, which the party lost in 2019.
Anil Antony: Son of former chief minister and veteran Congress leader A K Antony, Anil is contesting as a BJP candidate in the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency. Previously a leader of the Congress IT cell, he joined the BJP last year.
Thushar Vellappally: Thushar Vellappally is the son of Vellappally Natesan, general secretary of the SNDP Yogam. Thushar is contesting in the Kottayam LS seat as a candidate of the NDA. Thushar is the president of BDJS and serves as the vice-president of the SNDP. In 2019, he contested from Wayanad.
Bridging the Gulf
Congress leader Shafi Parambil, the UDF candidate in Vadakara, is in Qatar to campaign among the Keralites in the country. Former League leader and the LDF candidate in Ponnani K S Hamsa will leave for the UAE within two days. Besides encouraging voters to return to Kerala during polling, these visits are intended to canvas votes of their relatives back home. Raising funds, of course, is another reason, say sources.
