PALAKKAD: Defying pre-election predictions of a close triangular contest, UDF candidate Rahul Mamkootathil won the by-election to the Palakkad assembly constituency with a historic majority. The big loser was the BJP, which saw its vote share slipping in many strongholds.
The 18,840-vote margin -- the biggest in the constituency’s history -- was a major morale booster for Rahul’s election strategists Shafi Parambil and V K Sreekandan. Interestingly, Shafi had won the seat by less than 4,000 votes in the previous election.
NDA candidate C Krishnakumar garnered 39,246 votes, which was down 10,974 from the tally achieved by E Sreedharan in 2021. LDF-backed independent P Sarin secured 37,293 votes, which marked a modest 723 gain from the previous election. However, this fell short of the high expectations generated by the Left front’s high-pitched campaign.
Saturday’s counting began with 961 postal ballots, followed by seven rounds of counting centered around Palakkad municipality. Despite a close first two rounds, the UDF gained a commanding lead in the subsequent rounds spread across urban and rural segments. The BJP struggled even in its urban stronghold, while the LDF posted a moderate improvement in municipal regions but underperformed in traditional strongholds such as Kannadi and Mathur.
The UDF maintained a significant momentum in rural areas and secured an overwhelming majority of 13,464 votes from Pirayiri, its core base.
The rural heart
Despite the usual trend of Pirayiri grama panchayat supporting the UDF and Kannadi and Mathur panchayats leaning towards the LDF, this time the rural areas cast their votes more diversely, ultimately benefiting the UDF, which traditionally enjoys stronger support in municipal regions.
Reflecting this shift, Pirayiri, despite a 4.21 percentage points decline in voter turnout in this by-election, overwhelmingly supported the UDF with 13,464 votes. This marked a significant increase compared to the front’s previous lead of 6,460 votes in the area.
Additionally, the UDF made significant gains in Kannadi and Mathur, securing 6,272 and 6,529 votes, compared to their previous tally of 1,268 and 2,485, respectively. On the other hand, LDF performed better in rural areas.
Secular & minority consolidation
The result suggest that secular, minority, and apolitical urban votes largely went to the UDF. Its significant lead in both municipal and grams panchayat regions highlights this trend. Additionally, its overwhelming majority in Muslim-dominated areas, such as Pirayiri and booths in areas of Jamaat-e-Islami and SDPI influence, indicate a considerable consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the UDF. Meanwhile, other minority voters, including Christians, who were initially expected to lean towards the NDA, also stayed with the UDF. This trend, likely driven by the UDF’s positioning as a major secular front, contributed to its overall lead.
Shafi-Sreekandan factor
Despite the efforts of UDF leaders and workers, Shafi and Sreekandan played a decisive role in ensuring Rahul’s massive majority. Shafi, who assumed the role of Rahul’s chief electoral agent from the moment the bypoll was announced, leveraged his personal connections in the constituency as a former MLA and his charismatic presence to benefit the UDF significantly.
Sreekandan complemented Shafi effectively, standing out as a strong campaigner and adeptly countering allegations and controversies surrounding the Congress party and its leadership. Together, their efforts to mobilise votes across the constituency were instrumental in the UDF’s resounding victory.
